National Rally is threatening a censure motion amid government instability, particularly over the Social Security budget. Marine Le Pen demands transparency on rising electricity costs and pension adjustments. The government is appealing to socialists for support, warning against the repercussions of a censure motion on France’s international image. Negotiations are tense, with potential triggers for a censure vote looming if budget consensus isn’t reached, while contentious measures regarding employer contributions and health spending are under debate.
National Rally Threatens Censure Motion Amid Government Turmoil
Ignoring Michel Barnier’s caution regarding the potential “storm” from a government collapse, the National Rally (RN) is intensifying its threat of a censure motion. This could potentially occur as soon as next week concerning the Social Security budget, which is set to be a focal point of negotiation among deputies and senators this Wednesday.
Marine Le Pen expressed her concerns on X, stating, “The French people expect transparent and decisive commitments to halt the 3 billion euro hike in electricity prices, which is a central aspect of the 2025 budget that would enable the government to increase electricity taxation. Additionally, there needs to be a reversal on the removal of new medications from the market and the de-indexation of pensions. The Prime Minister seems to be moving away from these commitments.”
RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy echoed the sentiment, indicating that he does not perceive any gesture of goodwill from Barnier, despite his willingness to take further action to “protect purchasing power” and his announcement of a mission regarding proportional representation, another key RN demand. If the left submits a censure motion, the RN could potentially topple the government.
Government Appeals for Responsibility Amidst Budget Negotiations
In an attempt to sway Jordan Bardella’s party, the government is reaching out to the socialists, emphasizing the peril of a France lacking both a budget and a stable government. Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon highlighted the “unprecedented responsibility” of the socialist party, urging them to distance themselves from La France insoumise. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot warned of the potential risks posed by the censure motion to France’s international standing, while Laurent Saint-Martin cautioned against an impending economic and financial crisis.
As the government anticipates a potential censure motion, it could be triggered early next week if a 49.3 is invoked concerning the Social Security budget. With no majority in the Assembly, the government may resort to this measure as early as Monday, should deputies and senators reach a consensus during the joint mixed commission (CMP), where the government’s coalition holds a slim majority.
Convincing the Ensemble for the Republic (EPR) deputies to support an increase in employer contributions is crucial, as opposing this move could be seen as a betrayal of seven years of supply-side policies. The EPR holds a decisive vote that could sway the outcome.
Despite internal divisions, the macronist group ultimately chose not to obstruct a potential compromise, although they plan to request a separate vote on employer contributions during the CMP to express their dissent.
If the CMP fails, the text will revert to the parliamentary shuttle, likely necessitating additional 49.3 votes for passage. Although the government is not present in the CMP, they remain engaged through phone and text communications. They proposed a four billion euro effort on employer contributions, which the Senate scaled back to three billion, while the presidential camp is pushing for complete elimination.
Laurent Saint-Martin believes a “good consensus” in the CMP would revolve around 1.5 billion euros, whereas EPR deputy Mathieu Lefèvre argues that this amount is “too much,” raising concerns about the RN potentially using a CMP failure as justification for a censure against Barnier.
In addition to employer contributions, the proposed text contains several contentious measures, including pension indexing, medication reimbursements, and taxation on sodas and tobacco. Laurent Wauquiez, head of the Republican Right deputies, announced an agreement with LR senators to eliminate seven hours of unpaid work for employees, projected to yield 2.5 billion euros, which has caught some centrist senators off guard.
The left will strive to advocate for increased health insurance spending targets (Ondam) and the reversal of certain medication delistings while proposing funding measures to support these initiatives.