According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there are increasing indications of an imminent nuclear test by North Korea. “We hope it doesn’t happen, but unfortunately the signs are pointing in the opposite direction,” said IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on Thursday in New York. The IAEA observes corresponding preparations in the autocracy. That’s why everyone is “holding their breath,” Grossi said.
A nuclear test would be further confirmation that the program is “moving full steam ahead in an incredibly worrying manner” and that Pyongyang is continuing to refine its arsenal. North Korea has repeatedly tested nuclear-capable missiles in recent months, despite harsh international sanctions and criticism. Since the beginning of the year there have already been more than 40 ballistic missiles, including medium and ICBMs – more than in any previous year. Since September, the tests have been carried out at an unusually high frequency. Experts therefore expect that ruler Kim Jong-un could also carry out his first nuclear test since 2017 in the coming weeks.
Experts assume that North Korea could test so-called tactical nuclear weapons this time. Such weapons are also referred to as “small nukes” – tactical weapons whose range and explosive power is significantly lower than strategic nuclear weapons, but which can be used across a continent. They could theoretically be used in combat as an alternative to conventional weapons, such as short-range missiles and artillery shells.
Experts advocate new solutions
South Korea and the US have held joint military exercises to deter North Korea during the recent North Korean missile tests, which Pyongyang in turn perceives as a provocation. In addition, the negotiation path in the conflict over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is currently blocked. Experts have long been calling for new solutions to be found.
But a peaceful solution to the conflict seems difficult. Decades of efforts by the United States to persuade Kim Jong-un to give up his weapons have failed, nuclear arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis wrote in a guest article for the a few days ago New York Times. And in his view, the North Korean ruler is determined to use the weapons to protect his country. “Washington must face the unthinkable: accepting that North Korea is a nuclear state,” Lewis wrote.