Even on the moon, but definitely in Brussels, the news of his victory will be heard, Viktor Orbán triumphed on Monday night. The news from Budapest was well heard in the institutions of the European Union, but not everyone responded immediately.
The Commission, for example, was monosyllabic, fueling speculation that the agency was now preparing a larger response: the imminent introduction of the so-called rule of law mechanism against Hungary. At the end of the process, this would mean that funds from the regular EU budget would no longer be paid out because of the rampant corruption in Hungary. It would be the maximum challenge to Viktor Orbán – but much too late, critics of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen think.
MEPs, who have been dealing with corruption and the dismantling of the rule of law under Viktor Orbán for many years, expressed outrage on Monday. “Orbán’s renewed election victory is an indictment of the European Union,” commented SPD politician Katarina Barley, deputy speaker of the parliament, who has long been calling for tougher action against Orbán. “The Commission and its long-time conservative friends watched the destruction of democracy for years and even courted it.”
Green rule of law expert Daniel Freund also criticized the Commission’s hesitation. Every day, 17 million euros are transferred from the EU budget to Hungary, Orbán used them for election gifts and even used funds from the state budget to finance the election campaign of his party Fidesz.
Money is the only leverage
The Commission could have applied the rule of law mechanism as early as 2021, but awaited complaints from Poland and Hungary before the European Court of Justice. The ECJ dismissed these lawsuits in February, but the Commission continued to wait – perhaps so as not to endanger the unity of the EU in the Ukraine crisis, perhaps also so as not to give Orbán an additional opportunity to end his election campaign with polemics against the EU fuel. If that was the intention, it didn’t work out.
Money is now the only means of pressure against Orbán in the EU. Because of the many election gifts that he distributed, he may now have to approach the EU, it is said. The EU is already holding back more than seven billion from the Corona reconstruction fund because the associated requirements to combat corruption are not being met. It is hard to imagine that the money will now be paid out without major concessions. Corruption in Hungary is so obvious that the introduction of the rule of law mechanism could well be justified with it. A specific threat to EU budget funds must be demonstrated.
The case of Poland, where the government is in the process of undermining the separation of powers, is somewhat different. Unlike Orbán, the Polish government has recently tried to find a compromise with the EU. She is still waiting for 24 billion from the Corona pot. Daniel Freund warns, however, that while the Polish government has received a great deal of praise for its refugee policy in the Ukraine crisis, it is continuing its attacks on the independent judiciary. However, the rule of law in Poland is not yet as hollow as in Hungary.
In any case, the rule of law experts in parliament are very frustrated after Orbán’s victory. “It can be assumed that Orbán will now continue the Putinization of Hungary for four more years,” complains Moritz Körner of the FDP. “Von der Leyen’s appeasement policy towards the Budapest would-be autocrat must finally end, otherwise it is no longer certain whether there will be any elections in Hungary in four years.”