Hungary and the oil embargo: Orbán’s game for time

Hungary’s government is railing against the EU’s planned oil embargo on Russia. The country is dependent on Russian oil and gas. Critics, however, think that the loud protest primarily serves to gain time.

The strategy and rhetoric of the Orbán government have not changed: complain loudly, threaten to veto, point the finger at Brussels. That helped the ruling party Fidesz in the election campaign, and it should help now that the EU Commission has put concrete proposals on the negotiating table for an oil embargo for all EU states – including Hungary – against Russia.

Government spokesman Zoltán Kovács sounds like Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in his campaign speeches. This is how the bureaucracy in Brussels works, they simply propose something that is unacceptable for Hungary, Kovács countered in the “BBC” interview. “They know very well that what they are proposing is against Hungary’s interests and cannot be implemented. If we go through with it like that, we will ruin Hungary’s economy.”

How to get out of addiction?

Orbán’s problem: Hungary is largely dependent on Russian oil and gas. Two-thirds of oil and petrol come from Russia, with gas it is more than 85 percent.

The newly re-elected head of government had the petrol prices in Hungary capped by the state, an election campaign gift with an expiry date. Nowhere else in Europe are energy prices for families as cheap as in Hungary. Made possible by favorable agreements with Moscow.

A gift with consequences

Patrick Szicherly, an analyst at the independent think tank Political Capital in Budapest, says it is almost impossible for Orbán to overturn it so soon after the election. He is convinced that this is why Orbán is intensifying his anti-EU rhetoric. “But that’s not to say that Hungary is impeding anything that the EU is pushing forward. It seems unlikely that Hungary will veto further sanctions against Russia.”

Ultimately, it’s about the price of the yes word from Hungary. Orbán’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó is planning. Currently, Hungary can buy the oil it needs for its economy from Russia, it comes through an overland pipeline. Therefore, according to Szijjártó, “we cannot support the sanctions package from Brussels in its current form, that would be irresponsible.”

No place for oil tankers

The long line to Russia is of little help in an embargo. Hungary lacks access to the sea, a port where oil tankers could dock.

Ákos Hadházy, a member of the opposition who is critical of Orbán, also admits this, but he believes the problem can be solved. He is sure that Orbán will not veto if he gets a few years to make the system independent – that’s how he knows Orbán.

The EU Commission has apparently priced in the concerns. Hungary will have more time to cut itself off from Russian oil. How long and what other alternative solutions will be found is currently being negotiated.