The results of the European elections are further fuelling the debate about future majorities in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. The focus is on Wagenknecht’s BSW. This is putting other parties under pressure.
There was great cheering in the Kosmos, a former East German cinema in Berlin, on Sunday evening. Apparently many people could once again “vote with a clear conscience and heart,” says the woman who is the focus of everything here: Sahra Wagenknecht. For her “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance,” the European elections are the first notable success.
They are particularly pleased with the results in eastern Germany. In Saxony, the party received 12.6 percent, in Brandenburg 13.8 percent and in Thuringia even 15 percent. This means that what some party members have been thinking about for weeks can become a reality: that the BSW will participate in government after the three state elections in the autumn. Ambitions for ministerial posts have long been a topic of discussion.
In the election review the next day, Wagenknecht went one step further. In Thuringia, the question of who will ultimately be the Prime Minister is “quite open,” she says. The gap to the CDU is not that big. So now there is talk of a BSW Prime Minister.
CDU debates how to deal with BSW
Friedrich Merz does not want to participate. In ARD Focus The CDU chairman said on Monday evening that his party does not work with “right-wing extremist and left-wing extremist parties.” And both apply to Sahra Wagenknecht: “She is right-wing extremist on some issues, but left-wing extremist on others.”
With this bold ruling, Merz has included Wagenknecht’s party in the CDU’s incompatibility resolution. This has so far prohibited “coalitions and similar forms of cooperation” with the Left Party and AfD. At the federal party conference in early May, the party had avoided a discussion on the matter.
One of the few people who publicly supports Merz is the former Federal Government Commissioner for Eastern Europe, Marco Wanderwitz. He writes on X: “Friedrich Merz is absolutely right.” Wagenknecht has never had anything “with democracy,” says Wanderwitz.
Merz’s reversal
The leadership of the East CDU sounds different. He assumes that Merz “spoke for the federal level,” says Thuringian state leader Mario Voigt. His association does not want to rule anything out before the election.
Brandenburg’s CDU leader Jan Redmann, on the other hand, calls doubts about Wagenknecht and the BSW “justified”, but adds in the “Handelsblatt”: “At this point in time, we in Brandenburg cannot evaluate either people or programs.” In doing so, he is keeping all options open. Similar statements come from Saxony.
Redmann and Voigt receive support from the Union. North Rhine-Westphalia’s Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst warns his party against “blanket recommendations from above”. On Tuesday afternoon, Friedrich Merz himself repeated his own comments. He now says that he had “expressed himself from the perspective of federal politics”.
Kenya coalition in Saxony is shaky
Saxony’s CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is once again turning his attention to the federal government. On Monday morning, he called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to consider new elections or to work with the Union. Kretschmer sees the result of the European elections as a loss of confidence in the traffic light coalition.
If you follow this argument, Kretschmer’s Dresden coalition is also far from a majority. The CDU, SPD and Greens together only received 34.6 percent in the European elections in Saxony. This finding can also be applied to other state governments: in Brandenburg, the red-black-green coalition now received 37.5 percent, while in Thuringia, the red-red-green coalition only received 18.1 percent.
The focus of the European elections would have been on federal politics, it is now said in unison from Dresden. In general, the Kenya coalition is working better than its reputation suggests. But it is the Prime Minister himself who has been stressing for months that he will only continue to work with the Greens if necessary. The latter are positioning themselves in view of the flirtation between the CDU and BSW.
A “stable coalition” from the middle of society will only be possible with the Greens, says Saxony’s Green Justice Minister Katja Meier to tagesschau.deShe believes that the strategy of the Saxon CDU to “win back votes from the AfD by attacking the Greens and the traffic light coalition” has failed.
According to Meier, Sunday’s election “strengthened the loudmouths and populists in Saxony in particular.” The coalition partners should therefore remember what the coalition has achieved for Saxony.
Left and CDU in Thuringia
In Thuringia, on the other hand, the rapprochement between the CDU and BSW is putting pressure on Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow’s party. The Left Party remained in single figures in the European and local elections. Until the state elections on September 1, it is relying primarily on Ramelow’s popularity ratings.
Co-country manager Christian Schaft agrees tagesschau.de: “We are now gathering our strength.” The Left wants to continue to be the “strongest democratic force”. In order to continue to govern, Ramelow would most likely have to rely on the CDU. He has already offered to work with them on several occasions.
“In order to enable stable conditions in difficult times,” says Schaft, the Left is open to this. The how and what must be discussed after the election. Now it is a matter of keeping channels of communication open.
AfD left out
At least there is movement within the CDU. The Thuringian regional leader Voigt continues to emphasize his party’s incompatibility resolution. However, he and other CDU representatives have recently found a new way of using the language. They then talk of “no coalition with the AfD and the Left – and also no cooperation with the AfD.” Why the Left is left out in the second part is something the other party has to figure out for themselves.
Voigt is at least counting on the Left Party to help him to the office of Prime Minister if the CDU finishes ahead of them. Recently, the Red-Red-Green coalition and the CDU were able to pass a constitutional amendment and a kindergarten law in the Erfurt state parliament.
The AfD is left out of all these discussions. The 31.8 percent in the European elections in Saxony nourishes the faint hope that it might be enough to form a one-party government in September. But in the days following the election, no one is making any moves toward the party, which is in parts right-wing extremist.
Even those in the CDU who can imagine at least a toleration by the AfD are silent. Federal spokeswoman Alice Weidel is therefore trying to make an advance in the familiar direction. “We would talk to anyone – including the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance,” says Weidel in the ARD FocusWagenknecht should not now act as an “opposition splitter”.
Sahra Wagenknecht is clearly watching all this calmly. On Tuesday afternoon she spoke to journalists in the Bundestag. Her group has just boycotted the speech of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj, demonstrating what a test a coalition with the BSW would mean for any other party.
Wagenknecht speaks about CDU leader Merz and the reactions to his statement. Merz is “obviously overwhelmed by the task of leading his party,” she says. He is probably taking into account the ungovernability of several federal states. In any case, the BSW is ready for “stable governments.”