After a historic success in the European elections, followed by a first round of legislative elections in which it came out on top, the National Rally seemed set to smash the glass ceiling it had been struggling with for so long. Polls were predicting an absolute majority in the National Assembly, with some projections of over 300 seats. But the victorious machine began to go off the rails, and the promised highway to Matignon turned into a dead end.
Result: the far-right party is “only” the third force in the Assembly, behind the New Popular Front and the presidential group Ensemble, with “only” 143 deputies, which is much less than the most pessimistic projections.
“A big lack of humility”
If the rapid resurrection of the Republican barrier partly explains this disappointment, the National Rally is also paying for a campaign that did not work so well. “There was a big lack of humility,” points out Alexandre Eyries, a teacher-researcher in information and communication sciences at the Catholic University of the West in Niort. “They overestimated their strengths and their lead, which was certainly considerable in the first round, thinking that it would be enough.”
The two leading figures of the party illustrate the curious immobility that has gripped the National Rally. Jordan Bardella stayed in Paris last week, and Marine Le Pen barely went out twice, only to her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont. Far from the hyper-presence on the ground during the European elections that had borne fruit. “I assume my share of responsibility both for the victory in the European elections and for yesterday’s (Sunday) defeat,” Jordan Bardella acknowledged on Monday.
The week everything changed
Beyond knocking on doors and squatting in market squares, the National Rally has also shied away from debates. Whether at the national level – Jordan Bardella refusing to debate with Marine Tondelier – or at the local level – many RN candidates refusing to speak with opponents. “If you refuse to debate, in the minds of voters, it is either because you do not feel up to it, or because you think you are too far above your opponents. Fear or arrogance, that does not sell very well,” continues the specialist.
For Christian Delporte, a historian specializing in political history, the observation is worse than a failed campaign. “The RN simply did not run a second-round campaign, with the idea that everything was going so well that it should not move to avoid making a mistake. The party’s leaders told themselves that there was only one week left, that it would be fine. But in one week, a lot can happen.”
The “black sheep”, a real burden
And in particular more than 80 “black sheep”, as the press has nicknamed the National Rally candidates who have been singled out for blunders, media absences and especially racist, homophobic or sexist remarks. “Dozens of National Rally candidates have caused problems, tarnished the image of the party which was de-demonizing itself and have been a blot. These casting errors may also have made voters question the National Rally’s ability to govern,” says Armelle Le Bras-Chopard, political scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines. Jordan Bardella spoke on Monday of “a certain number of candidates that we were forced to dismiss at the start of the campaign because they did not correspond to the political line that I was promoting.”
Here again, an excess of confidence, according to Christian Delporte: “The RN parachuted in candidates without local roots, and mute candidates to boot, thinking that Bardella’s good image would be enough.” Same idea as Alexandre Eyries: “They wanted to repeat Emmanuel Macron’s stunt with a lot of deputies from civil society and without much political experience, but this amateurism was seen and was totally counterproductive.”
A failure, really?
But did he really have any other options? Rémi Lefebvre, professor of political science at the University of Lille-2, decides: “The only big mistake of the RN is to have useless people in its ranks, but with only 20,000 members and no local ties, did it have a choice? It’s the same for fleeing the debates. With such useless candidates, participating would probably have been worse.” For the expert, in one week, “the press has also been much more offensive with the RN candidates than in recent years and has pinned down their remarks or their incompetence. The duel configuration has allowed local media to focus precisely on each candidate.”
A week of twiddling one’s thumbs for the RN is also a week where Ensemble and the New Popular Front flexed their muscles. “The other camps fought until the last second, where the RN kept a low profile,” believes Alexandre Eyries. Rémi Lefebvre further: “More than a failed campaign by the RN, we should talk about a successful campaign by the opposing parties. Not to mention the Republican Front, against which the National Rally cannot do much.”
The fact remains that, as great as the disillusionment may be, the RN is leaving with 143 seats, or 54 more than before these early legislative elections. As for defeats, we have seen worse. Armelle Le Bras-Chopard notes: “The RN is pleased to have increased the number of its elected representatives by a significant proportion compared to the 2022 legislative elections. And, having come in third place, it is putting itself in reserve, hoping for political confusion that would give it the opportunity to resurface. Perhaps after a new dissolution in a year, and especially in the presidential election of 2027.” Jordan Bardella says nothing else: “Time is on our side.”