As Algeria prepares to celebrate the sixtieth anniversary of its independence, tensions with France are at their peak. Saturday, Algiers recalled its ambassador to France for “consultation” and closed its airspace to French military planes. Decisions that follow
the publication of an article from World reporting Emmanuel Macron’s remarks particularly critical of the Algerian government.
Before that, Algeria had already summoned the French ambassador to Algiers after France decided to reduce the number of visas granted to Algerian nationals. Can diplomatic escalation continue between the two nations? 20 minutes make the point.
What does Algeria blame France for?
First of all, there was this visa story. Blaming Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria for not welcoming their nationals when they are returned from France, the French government decided a week ago to toughen the granting of visas for people coming of these three Maghreb countries. The question of the large number of Algerians crossing the border is not something that enchants the Algerian power “because it reflects the failure of the economic and social project of the government”, explains Hasni Abidi, director of the study center. of research on the Arab and Mediterranean world (CERMAM) in Switzerland. “But Algiers accuses France of managing the migration issue on its own, without consulting the Algerian authorities.”
The tone really went up a notch on the Algerian side on Saturday after the publication of an article in The world relaying words from Emmanuel Macron. During his meeting with the third generation of children of harkis, the President of the Republic is said to have affirmed that Algeria, after its independence in 1962, was built on “a memorial rent”, maintained by “the political system. military ”. The Head of State would have evoked “an official history”, according to him, “completely rewritten”, which “is not based on truths” but on “a speech which rests on a hatred of France”. Finally, he would have questioned the existence of an Algerian nation before French colonization.
Are the sanctions taken by Algeria worrying for France at this stage?
In the visa affair, the Algerian government summoned François Gouyette, the French ambassador to Algiers, to notify him of “a formal protest”. A decision that did not seem to panic Paris. “This means that things are moving, that the dialogue is opening and that we will finally be able to open this issue of consular passes,” even launched, optimistic, Marlène Schiappa, interviewed on BFMTV.
Regarding the decisions of Algiers on Saturday, that’s another story. “A reminder of an ambassador is not a rupture of diplomatic ties, but a way of signifying a disagreement”, moderates Hasni Abidi. The political scientist believes, on the other hand, that closing its airspace to the French military is “a decision with more serious consequences” for France. “This hinders French strategy in the Sahel and constitutes a handicap for France’s foreign policy. “
In what context do the Algerian reactions take place?
To understand the reaction of the Algerian government, it is also necessary to situate it in the current geopolitical context. “Algeria has recently undergone many provocations, analyzes a political scientist specializing in the Maghreb, preferring to remain anonymous. There were those launched by the Moroccan ambassador to the United Nations to demand the autonomy of Kabylia.
To this is added the statement by the Israeli foreign minister, who made it clear that at Morocco’s request, Israel would intervene militarily in Algeria. Finally, the internal Algerian situation is today very difficult after the health crisis and the mass fires in the north of the country, some of which have been qualified as criminogenic. Emmanuel Macron’s last words are the last straw that brought Algeria out of its silence.
It is also the pride of the government that is affected in this affair. ” President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has shown a certain closeness to Emmanuel Macron. He spoke glowingly about him, in particular to say that he was the only president to have gone so far in the memorial site between the two countries, underlines Hasni Abidi. There is therefore a disappointment on the part of the presidency. However, the Algerian government is very sensitive to its image. For the expert, not reacting to the words of the French president would have been perceived as an act of weakness by his public opinion.
Why have Morocco and Tunisia remained more in the background in the visa affair?
Morocco called France’s decision “unjustified”. Tunisia, in the midst of a political crisis, has not reacted officially. France’s relations with the other two Maghreb countries are not always good, but they have nothing to do overall with the diplomatic difficulties – more or less important, depending on the moment – with Algeria. In Algiers, the question of France’s relationship is still a domestic political issue.
“The Algerian reaction is more muscular than that of neighboring countries because the country considers that it has no accountability. Algeria also has several pressure levers. The country is therefore not in the wait or the moderation of neighboring countries, ”argues Hasni Abidi.
Does Algeria have the means to go further?
In this affair, Algeria has not yet played all its cards. Among its major pressure levers: its gas and oil exports. “A worsening of relations between the two countries could have an impact on the renewal of certain economic agreements between France and Algeria. This would be unfortunate for Paris, because Algiers could decide to reduce French imports and the presence of French companies on Algerian soil, ”says Hasni Abidi. “We must not forget either the Algerian diaspora in France which has the right to vote and could sanction certain parties during the elections,” adds the Maghreb specialist anonymously.
Are we heading towards a diplomatic escalation?
A priori no, according to Hasni Abidi who still believes that Algeria “can not do without an economic partner as important as France”. The two countries should therefore opt for a lull. “Not an improvement, nor a return to the situation before this crisis, but towards a freezing of relations”, estimates the expert.
Indeed, it seems unlikely that Algiers will reverse its decision without a strong gesture from Paris.
However, “it seems difficult for President Macron to go back on his statements in the middle of the electoral campaign, judges the director of CERMAM. A mea culpa on his part would be denounced by the right-wing parties, but if he continues to fuel this tension, part of the French population could also say to themselves that since he has been in power, he has multiplied the conflicts after the Turkey, Mali, Australia or the United States ”.