The apocalypse in swimsuits. More than 30,000 people had to be evacuated from Rhodes this weekend, due to the fires which are transforming this tourist destination into “real hell”. The symbol of Mediterranean holidays more than ever placed under the sign of global warming. 42°C in Rome a few days ago, 46°C in Tortoli, Sardinia, 37°C in Malaga. Suffocating. And perhaps, one is tempted to think, the beginning of a new era for a tourist sector as unregulated as the climate.
And yet. 1,000 kilometers from Rhodes, in Lefkada, another paradisiacal Greek island, tourist life follows its course. Marie-Dominique, co-manager of the Odysseia boat-tour, a day trip boat, is on the basis of a good season: “We have a lot of people on the island and on the boat. The heat wave is bearable at the water’s edge, and the evenings remain pleasant for locals and tourists.
Heat, a real brake?
Greece posted in 2022 “the best year for tourism in its history”, according to the minister in charge of the sector, Vassilis Kikilia, exceeding the record of 2019. Last February, he expected an increase of another 20% in 2023, in a speech delivered… on the island of Rhodes, which he presented as “flagship of tourism”. A now squeaky irony but which does not take away the good figures of last year. However, in July and August 2022, the average temperature in Athens was 36°C, with several peaks at 40.
Closer to home, despite the Andalusian temperatures or the historic heat wave that is raging in the country, the bancassurance ING predicts in recent days 80.7 million tourists in 2023 in Spain, and even expects a record level of 83.7 million in 2024.
In 2006, a report to the French government from the TEC (Tourism, transport, territories, environment, advice) looked at the impact of the heat wave – in historic times – of 2003 on holidaymakers. If the study pointed to a desired minimum temperature (18 ° C), he was unable to establish a maximum, even if some tourism experts evoke a first limit at 33 ° C. Sandra Hoibian, director of the Research Center for the Study and Observation of Living Conditions (Credoc) and tourism specialist, observes: “The holidaymaker knows how to adapt, in particular to the heat, for example by multiplying indoor activities or by getting up earlier”. Same story with Caroline Blondy, geographer, specializing in tourism-environment interactions: “Destinations with a ”classic” temperature of 40°C, like Dubai, are already attractive. »
Climate and tourism denial
Didier Arino, director of the Protourisme cabinet, even taunts the ambient catastrophism: “Since the heat wave of 2003, we announce the decline of southern Europe in the tourist sector, but we never see it happening. The excellent figures, year after year, are not likely to push the tourist Nations to make any major transition”. And indeed, “the sector seems not to want to anticipate the problem”, notes Sandra Hoibian. “Just like the snow sector, determined to take advantage of the last 50 years when it will be available on the European mountains rather than looking for alternatives”, summer tourism is benefiting. But until when ? It is certain “that climate change will have consequences”, fears the specialist.
Because certainly, the vacationer knows how to adapt, but he is not totally sadomasochistic. The TEC report showed an increase in the number of tourists to Normandy, Picardy and Lorraine during the summer of 2003 – and a shift away from the South. He also noted a “replica” in the summer of 2004, with fewer southern tourists than in previous years.
Despite the heat wave of 2022, bookings are looking good in 2023
Twenty years later, has the situation changed? The summer of 2022 was the hottest ever recorded in Europe, according to the European Copernicus service, with 60,000 deaths recorded. And yet, “reservations have been excellent across the continent for this summer of 2023, proof that this does not put off holidaymakers”, adds Didier Arino.
In 2004, the French had also booked their holidays later in order to adapt to the heat waves. “A third book their stays at the last moment,” says Sandra Hoibian. Currently, the main criterion is the absence of rain. But it could quickly become the absence of climatic catastrophe: fire, flood, drought…”
In Greece, 30,000 evacuees against 34 million tourists expected
In Lefkada, the month of July is certainly good, but Marie-Dominique remains “very worried”: “It’s scorching heat accompanied by a hot wind, and fire is a permanent danger here. And we still have the month of August ahead of us…” But what to do, if not to pray that disasters strike elsewhere? “Cities are what they are, and changing infrastructure takes a long time. Ditto for the seaside resorts”, excuses Didier Arino. The change can even be harmful, fears Sandra Hoibian: “More heat waves push tourist towns to install more air conditioning, which increases the heat outside. »
Climate change “will bring some adaptations, in particular greater consideration of the risk of fires, more resources allocated to the forecasting of natural disasters, imagines Caroline Blondy. But it is too early to question the tourism model of these countries”. A few tens of thousands of people evacuated from Rhodes weigh very little against the 34 million tourists expected this year – against only 10 million locals. This Monday morning, Transavia and Air France departed flights to Rhodes from Paris.