The new government alliance in France is fragile and has to overcome a serious debt crisis. Not an easy starting point for Prime Minister Barnier in his first government declaration.
With an eye for the essentials and a rather quiet tone, Michel Barnier wants to lead France through the debt crisis and into a new political era. This requires a new method, explained the 73-year-old and immediately made it clear what his approach is all about: not letting yourself get carried away.
So he spoke stoically for almost an hour and a half against the constant heckling of parliamentarians from the left camp, without even raising his voice: “My government cannot perform miracles, the path is so steep. But my government is ready to overcome every hurdle one at a time and try to provide answers to the expectations of the French.”
Debt as “Sword of Damocles”
But Barnier’s room for maneuver is limited. “The sword of Damocles that hangs over us is the colossal debt burden. It amounts to 3,228 billion euros,” he said. “If we’re not careful, this could sink us into the abyss. Our budget deficit will probably exceed 6 percent this year. If we don’t act, it will get even worse in 2025.”
Barnier wants to raise taxes
That’s why Barnier has to save money and he will raise taxes for very wealthy French people and large companies. A break with the previous government led by the Macronists, as Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister, made clear afterwards: “In reducing the deficit, we should under no circumstances jeopardize our growth, our jobs and our prosperity. Our recipe would therefore be: to reduce spending and certainly not to increase taxes.”
Tax policy is not the only issue where Barnier has to fear that his coalition partners from the Macron camp will refuse to support him. When it comes to the issue of immigration and security, ideas sometimes differ widely. Barnier’s Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, for example, dreams of a referendum on immigration. A no-go for the Macronists.
The new prime minister advocated, among other things, extending the time limits for deportation detention and introducing short, deterrent prison sentences for young criminals. These measures are not only met with goodwill by Barnier’s conservative Republicans, but are also likely to make the right-wing nationalists more lenient.
Le Pen is putting pressure on him
The Rassemblement National is the largest single faction in the assembly and would have the power to overthrow the government with a vote of no confidence, in which parts of other factions also took part. But Marine Le Pen initially limited herself to maintaining her threatening attitude. “One of our three red lines would be that the necessary push on immigration, security and justice is not made. We demand that you introduce a new restrictive immigration law in 2025,” she said.
The RN therefore tolerates the Barnier government as long as it does not cross the red lines of the Rassemblement National. A demonstration of power and also a targeted demarcation from the left-wing alliance NFP. Marine Le Pen likes to portray this left-wing alliance as a “cluster of chaos” that is not constructive and only provides frontal opposition.
Left-wing alliance NFP describes center parties as “traitors”
And in fact, the NFP had already announced a vote of no confidence before Barnier’s government statement. The left-wing spokesman Mathilde Panot recalled today that the NFP emerged from the election as the strongest force and was then cheated out of victory. Panot sees the representatives of the center parties, who now sit in the conservative government, but in the second round of voting together with the left-wing alliance against the Rassemblement National, as traitors. She hurled at them in parliament: “If you don’t work with us to bring down this government, shame and disgrace will fall on you.”
When these words were spoken, Michel Barnier’s quiet tones had long since faded away.