Government fears a 15 billion gap in the 2025 federal budget

The traffic light was only able to agree on the 2024 budget with difficulty – now further trouble lurks with the 2025 federal budget. There is already a gap of 15 billion euros there.

After the budget is before the budget. The Bundestag is supposed to pass the long-discussed budget for 2024 next week. But it is already becoming apparent: the budget preparation for 2025 is likely to present the traffic light coalition with major new challenges.

Because gaps are already opening up: in July, the Ministry of Finance mentioned a need for action of five billion euros in its planning. There are also six billion euros because a corresponding reserve is to be used up in the current year.

The follow-up costs of the Ahrtal flood must also be financed from the budget. All in all, a good 15 billion euros are currently missing that the traffic light budgets have to deal with.

KTF is likely to become a problem

There are also a lot of uncertainties that could cost billions more. The Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) in particular is likely to become a problem in the coming year.

The KTF still has around 50 billion euros available this year. Through income from emissions trading and CO2 pricing as well as through a reserve of almost 30 billion euros. This reserve is likely to be largely used up this year. So the KTF would have to get by with significantly less in 2025.

The fund provides funding for the sustainable conversion of industry and the replacement of heating systems in private households. In addition, the KTF also bears the EEG costs for wind and solar parks since the EEG surcharge for electricity customers was canceled. But there is already a gap in the billions, which is likely to put additional strain on the KTF.

Greens: Climate money should not come from KTF

In addition, there are still considerations about introducing climate money. For example, every citizen would then receive around 100 euros to offset CO2 costs. If FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner has his way, the climate money should also be financed from the KTF.

The Greens strictly reject this because the climate fund is likely to have too little money anyway. From the Greens’ perspective, the KTF must receive a billion-dollar subsidy from the federal budget next year. How this is supposed to work is currently unclear given the gaps that already exist.

Debate about debt brake again?

If tax revenues do not rise unexpectedly, the question will soon arise again as to whether all the planned expenditure can be financed without extensive new loans. The next debate about the sense and nonsense of the debt brake is already looming within the traffic light coalition. After the budget is before the budget.