The affair seems to be off to a very bad start. Reducing CO2 emissions will not be enough to limit global warming to an increase of 1.5° or even 2°C: it will be necessary to eliminate four times more than today by 2050, thanks to forests but also thanks to to cutting-edge technologies that are still in their infancy, according to a reference report published this Tuesday.
After the inventory, the time has come for quantified objectives: the second edition of an interdisciplinary report coordinated by Oxford University establishes that, depending on global warming scenarios, it will be necessary to eliminate, that is to say capture from the atmosphere and store sustainably, between “7 and 9 billion tonnes of CO2” per year by 2050.
Fossil fuels and targeted deforestation
The first edition of the report (The State of carbon dioxide removal) concluded last year that around 2 billion tonnes were currently being eliminated, mainly through reforestation, compared to 40 billion tonnes emitted worldwide in 2023.
“In parallel with a rapid reduction of emissions” which remains “the most important strategy”, the elimination of CO2 from the atmosphere “is also necessary” to achieve the objectives of the Paris agreement, recall more than 50 researchers. Some are also part of the IPCC, the climate experts mandated by the UN, which has recognized the need to eliminate CO2 but giving it a limited role in its scenarios towards “carbon neutrality”.
Unattainable goals
“If we fail to reduce emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation, the goals of the Paris agreement will be unattainable, even with strong action to increase CO2 removal,” said William Lamb, one of the authors, Tuesday during the presentation of the report.
The elimination of CO2 has recently experienced “rapid growth in research, public opinion and start-ups” but “first signs of slowdown” are emerging because policies and public funding are not keeping up, say the experts, who call governments to integrate the monitoring of these eliminations into their national reduction plan (CDN) provided for by the Paris agreement.
Uncertain financing
According to them, the market is currently growing thanks to the demand for carbon credits from companies, contested financial tools, a purchased credit allowing them to offset a ton of CO2 emitted by their operations thanks to the financing of a CO2 elimination project or reduction of emissions.
The CO2 vacuum cleaners from the start-up Climeworks, installed in Iceland, which has significant underground storage, are a good illustration: two factories currently make it possible to capture and store 10,000 tonnes of CO2 per year thanks to the support of private funds and the sale of carbon credits. To reach one million tonnes, Climeworks will need several billion euros, just like other start-ups, very “uncertain” funding at this stage, according to the report.
Worrying trend
For the Center for International Environmental Law (Ciel), this report illustrates “a worrying trend that increasingly wants to sell CO2 elimination as a solution to climate change”. “It’s a distraction from the priority which is (…) to get away from fossil fuels,” says Lili Fuhr, from the NGO.
Elimination focuses on CO2 already emitted into the atmosphere, thanks to the restoration or creation of natural carbon sinks (forests, soils, peatlands) but also to new techniques, associated with storage underground or in materials, which represent less than 0.1% of CO2 currently eliminated, according to the report. The authors of the report call for “rapid” but “sustainable” and controlled development of CO2 elimination.