Status: 02/23/2022 12:42 p.m
After the mood was more optimistic again recently, inflation and the ongoing Omicron crisis are putting a damper on consumer sentiment. The Ukraine conflict could also have a negative impact.
Rapidly rising prices and the virus crisis that has not been overcome are robbing consumers of confidence. The consumption barometer of the GfK market researchers in Nuremberg for the month of March fell by 1.4 points to minus 8.1 points, as announced by GfK. Surprisingly, the index fell again after the forecast for February had improved slightly in January.
However, the infection rates of the Omicron virus variant, which rose sharply during the survey in the first half of February, and the high inflation figures caused the mood to change again: “In particular, the expectations of a significant relaxation in price developments at the beginning of the year have been dashed for the time being, because the inflation rate is moving remain at a high level,” explains GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl.
Income prospects are clouded
These developments also weighed on income prospects: the partial indicator lost 13 points in February and fell to 3.9 points. This is the lowest level in more than a year. “The greatest threat to income expectations at present is high inflation. High energy and food prices weaken purchasing power,” explained the consumer researchers.
According to the expert, the lifting of numerous pandemic restrictions in Germany gives reason for hope for the next few months: “If this were supported by moderate price increases, the consumer climate could finally recover again in the long term.” In addition to taking effective measures against the sharply rising prices, which have been reaching new highs again and again for months, especially in the energy sector, it will be important that the supply chain problem in important branches of industry is further defused, stressed Bürkl.
Effects of the Ukraine conflict still unclear
However, the Ukraine conflict could have a negative impact and put a further damper on consumer sentiment. Depending on further developments in eastern Ukraine, energy prices could rise further and this could weigh on the economic outlook.
In contrast to the consumption barometer, the economic mood improved in February and continued the upward trend from February. With a plus of 1.3 points, the indicator shows 24.1 points. On the other hand, the willingness of citizens to buy expensive goods such as cars or furniture went downhill. With a minus of 3.8 points, this sub-indicator is now at 1.4 points.