Germany’s population will grow – according to a forecast, by around 800,000 inhabitants by 2045. But the increase will mainly affect cities; in rural regions the picture is very different.
The population living in Germany could grow to about 85.5 million people by 2045. According to the tenth Population forecast of the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR) The number of people in Germany will increase primarily due to immigration. However, there are clear regional differences.
The forecast is based on data from long-term demographic developments in Germany, including birth rates, mortality trends and data on external and internal migration. On this basis, the institute estimates that around 800,000 more people will live in Germany in 2045 compared to 2023 – an increase of 0.9 percent.
More people will live, especially in cities
According to the BBSR, economically strong cities and regions will see an increase in residents. In areas with a less strong economy, however, the population will decrease. This will particularly affect districts in eastern Germany. The population in the Erzgebirgskreis district in Saxony, the Greiz district in Thuringia and the Mansfeld-Südharz district in Saxony-Anhalt will shrink by a good fifth over the next 20 years or so.
The forecast for Berlin and the surrounding area is different – here the population could grow by more than twelve percent by 2045. The BBSR also expects an increase in residents for the independent cities of Potsdam and Leipzig. Here the institute even predicts an increase of between 14 and almost 15 percent by 2045.
In some regions of western Germany, the population is likely to decline. According to forecasts, this will affect parts of northern Hesse, the neighboring areas in the eastern part of North Rhine-Westphalia and parts of Saarland. The Bavarian district of Ebersberg will be the national leader in terms of population growth, with more than 15 percent more people expected to live there by 2045.
Average age rises
As the population grows, the BBSR also expects the average age of the German population to increase. By 2045, the number of residents of retirement age – i.e. 67 years or older – will increase by around 2.2 million. Compared to 2023, this represents an increase of 13.6 percent. In addition to several Bavarian districts, it is mainly the eastern regions that will “age” here. In 2045, people in the districts of Vorpommern-Rügen and Mansfeld-Südharz in Saxony-Anhalt, in the Thuringian districts of Altenburger Land and Greiz, and in the Brandenburg district of Spree-Neiße will be on average older than 50 years.
An opposite trend is emerging in university cities such as Frankfurt am Main, Munich and Heidelberg. The population in these independent cities will still be younger than 41 years old on average in 2045. The independent city of Leipzig has the lowest average age among the East German districts at 42 years, followed by Berlin with an average of 42 years and Jena with just under 43 years.
According to the forecast, the number of citizens of working age – here based on the age group of 20 to 67 years – will fall by around two percent by 2045. Here too, the BBSR expects a decline of up to 30 percent in some cases, especially for eastern German districts. In independent cities, however, the proportion of people of working age will increase by up to ten percent in some cases. This again applies to the cities of Munich, Leipzig, Berlin and Potsdam.
Urgent challenges with growing population
Peter Jakubowski, head of the Spatial and Urban Development Department at the BBSR, attributes the predicted population growth for Germany primarily to immigration. His institute expects an increase of 300,000 people from abroad by 2045. Jakubowski emphasizes:
Many people will continue to come to Germany from many parts of the world for a variety of reasons. Without immigration from abroad, Germany’s population would already be significantly lower in 2045 because the number of deaths will far exceed the number of births.
However, Federal Minister of Construction Klara Geywitz also sees numerous challenges ahead for Germany in view of population growth. These include “securing skilled workers, integration, more age-appropriate housing, digitization in rural areas and the adaptation of social infrastructure.” The housing shortage in cities and the issue of loneliness, especially among older generations, are also problems that need to be given more focus.