German foreign trade: Great Britain no longer top ten partner

Status: 04.12.2022 5:20 p.m

Almost three years after Brexit, the consequences of leaving the EU are still being felt in Great Britain. Also in foreign trade: The United Kingdom falls out of the top ten of German trading partners for the first time.

Great Britain is becoming less and less important as a trading partner for Germany after Brexit. This year, the United Kingdom will drop out of the top ten German trading partners for the first time in recent history. This is the result of an analysis by the federal company Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI), as reported by the dpa news agency.

The calendar and seasonally adjusted exchange of goods between January and October grew by 13.7 percent compared to the same period last year, mainly due to inflation. However, the entire German foreign trade in goods increased by 20.7 percent in the same period. Most recently, the Czech Republic overtook Great Britain in the ranking of the most important trading partners.

Importance of Great Britain steadily decreases

“The slow development in German-British foreign trade is not a new trend,” emphasizes the GTAI analysis. Since 2017 – the first full year after the Brexit referendum – the UK’s importance has been steadily declining. At that time it was still the fifth most important foreign trade partner.

There were other reasons for Brexit. “Both the coronavirus pandemic, energy-price-driven inflation and the Bank of England’s monetary policy turnaround have thrown the British economic engine out of sync,” it said. “The consequences of Brexit amplify the effect because trade across the customs border has become more expensive,” says GTAI. There is still uncertainty. “Almost three years after Britain left the EU, the country’s post-Brexit economic policy course remains unclear and is unsettling British companies.”

Great Britain left the European Union at the end of January 2020 and has also not been a member of the EU customs union and internal market since January 2021. Although the Brexit trade agreement ensures freedom from customs duties in most areas, there are still difficulties in trade due to increased bureaucratic requirements. The introduction of expensive and time-consuming work visas for skilled workers also makes cooperation more difficult.

Outlook for 2023: “No trend reversal in sight”

According to GTAI, the outlook for 2023 also gives little hope, especially since the central bank believes that Great Britain is heading into a long recession and companies are likely to be even more hesitant to invest. This affects the delivery of vehicles, industrial machinery and chemical products, where Germany is one of the most important suppliers. “With recession on the horizon, rising financing costs and a rise in UK corporation tax from 19% to 25% in April 2023, there is no sign of a turnaround,” the report notes.

Of particular interest to German companies are a few smaller sectors, which have developed much more strongly despite the economic problems. These included healthcare, offshore wind energy and infrastructure construction. The GTAI notes mixed signals from the important automotive industry, the most important pillar of German-British trade. If the British car market actually grows significantly in 2023, this could mean a turnaround, it said.

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