German climate goals: “No room for improvement”

Germany will probably miss its self-imposed climate targets for 2030. Two ministries in particular are lagging behind: construction and transport. Ambition varies.

At the world climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, the federal government presents itself as a pioneer in climate protection – but the expert council for climate issues it uses is skeptical as to whether it can achieve the climate goals it has set itself by 2030. The experts see a need to catch up in construction and especially in the transport sector.

The Climate Council presented its first biennial report last week. The report shows that between 2000 and 2010 Germany managed to reduce emissions primarily because more efficient systems were used in heating systems or vehicles. But that doesn’t work anymore.

“Probably ‘business as usual’ will not be enough to achieve the climate targets for 2030,” says Brigitte Knopf in an interview with tagesschau.de. She is the Vice Chair of the Expert Council on Climate Issues and Secretary General at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). “We need a paradigm shift in the overall direction of German climate policy.”

By 2030, the federal government wants to save a total of 65 percent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. By 2045, it even wants to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality, i.e. emit as many emissions as it reduces. The Climate Protection Act determines how strong the greenhouse gas emissions in the individual sectors per year must be reduced.

Transport and construction missed the targets in 2021

In 2021, the transport and construction ministries did not achieve their goals, so they had to draw up emergency programs. The short program presented by the Ministry of Transport envisages promoting electromobility, expanding public transport, cycling and walking and expanding mobile working. The ministry wants to save almost 14 million tons of greenhouse gases – according to its own arguments, enough to make up for the more than three million tons of surplus from 2021.

But that is not the task of the ministry, says Knopf: “The task under the Climate Protection Act is to show that the goals will really be met in the next few years and not just the shortcomings from last year will be made up for.” In the summer, the climate council determined that the gap by 2030 would still be 260 million tons. The experts are still waiting for the relevant measures to be taken by the Ministry of Transport.

On the other hand, Klara Geywitz’s SPD-led Ministry of Construction, in cooperation with the Ministry of Climate Protection, has already presented comprehensive immediate measures. The program provides for a renewed building energy law from 2024, wants to promote efficient buildings and serial renovation and optimize heating systems. A total of 156 to 161 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions are to be saved in this way. In principle, the climate targets could be met by 2030, the climate council estimates. But there are some uncertainties – for example, whether there are enough craftsmen.

Transport Minister Volker Wissing refers in conversation with the Bavarian radio to the Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection. Nobody prevents Minister Robert Habeck from presenting a climate protection program. “Now it is important to jointly agree on achieving certain interim goals within a certain period of time up to 2030,” said Wissing. In a situation in which logistics chains are massively endangered, as Minister of Transport he cannot simply do without mobility and supply chains. “These weighing processes are not solved by one side complaining about the other, but these weighing processes are solved through serious politics and finding clever political compromises,” said the FDP politician.

Climate protection is a major task for society as a whole that affects all areas, writes a spokesman for the Ministry of Transport on request tagesschau.de. “That’s why we agreed in the coalition agreement to check compliance with the climate targets using a cross-sectoral and multi-year accounting, analogous to the Paris climate protection agreement. This must be reflected in the upcoming revision of the climate protection law.” The ministry spokesman also refers to the Green Minister Habeck.

Button: “Do more in the areas of transport and buildings”

The FDP would like to bury the sector targets completely. “The traffic light agreed in its coalition agreement that, unlike the previous government, we would no longer just look at the individual sector, such as transport, but that we would like to offset the climate targets more across sectors,” said FDP leader Christian Lindner in the ARD summer interview. Progress can be made faster in certain areas than in others, said the finance minister.

Climate expert Knopf sees it differently: “Our analysis shows quite relentlessly that there is no room for improvement in any sector and that we are lagging behind in almost all sectors.” You can therefore not offset the misconduct from one sector with another. This is exactly why more needs to be done in the areas of transport and buildings.

The demand side must also change

The sector targets are also important because they clearly define responsibility for the savings targets. “This transfers responsibility for misconduct to a responsible ministry,” says Knopf. “That’s important, because otherwise the responsibility gets stuck in a vacuum.”

From the point of view of the climate council, the biggest problem lies in the fact that the measures usually promote the development of new technologies, such as the expansion of renewable energies or electromobility. From the point of view of the experts, however, this is only one of three levers that are necessary to curb emissions.

In addition, old fossil technologies such as combustion cars would have to be used less. And the demand side must also change. “The new cars are becoming faster, heavier and have larger engines,” says Knopf. The living space is also getting bigger. As a result, emissions continued to rise.

Politicians must counteract these developments with appropriate measures. That could be upper emissions limits, other mobility concepts, but also the abolition of perverse incentives such as company car privileges or tax breaks for diesel vehicles, said Knopf. During construction, the old stock must be renovated even better instead of promoting new construction.

There are many measures that could help to meet the climate targets in the individual areas. Environmental groups are calling for a speed limit on motorways or car-free inner cities for the transport sector. Which measures the Ministry of Transport considers correct in addition to electromobility remains open.