The threats fly back and forth, and in between rockets fly again. The Palestinian Hamas warns of an “earthquake”, of the shelling of Tel Aviv and the resumption of bomb attacks in Israeli cities. Israel is raising its iron fist and personally targeting Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. The opponents have thrown themselves back into the spiral of escalation that makes the next war appear only a matter of time – and that exactly on the anniversary of the last Gaza war in 2021.
On May 10, a year ago, Hamas opened the war with a volley of rockets on Jerusalem. It was the signal that the Islamist rulers of the Gaza Strip now also wanted to present themselves as defenders of Jerusalem. The conflict had escalated during Ramadan with unrest around the al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount and in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, where Palestinian families were threatened with displacement. These tensions erupted in an eleven-day armed conflict that According to a United Nations report, 13 Israelis died and 260 Palestinians died, half of them civilians.
Apparently no one has learned lessons from this fourth war in a row since the end of 2008. Also in Ramadan 2022, which ended in early May, the Temple Mount was again the scene of bloody clashes, and again there were rocket alarms in the Israeli communities bordering the Gaza Strip. On top of that, a wave of terror has swept through Israel, claiming 17 lives in recent weeks. A long-term ceasefire, which mediators from Egypt and Qatar have been trying to achieve since the end of the war in 2021, is not in sight.
If you are looking for changes, you will only find them in the small print. With Israel’s approval, Qatar and the United Nations have agreed on a new distribution of aid funds. Around 100,000 families in need in the Gaza Strip will receive direct financial support of the equivalent of 95 euros per month from the UN. This ended the previous practice in which emissaries from Qatar came to the Gaza Strip with suitcases full of cash – and no one could control how much of it ended up directly in Hamas’ pockets.
Targeted killings are being talked about again
As long as the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip, which has been in place since 2007, is being maintained, relaxations such as expanding the fishing zone to 15 nautical miles or the recently promised 20,000 work permits for Palestinians in Israel cannot stop the impoverishment of the more than two million residents of the Palestinian coastal strip. Unemployment in the Gaza Strip is still more than 40 percent. Only ten percent of residents have access to clean water. Electricity is only available by the hour.
Hamas leader Sinwar now seems to be pursuing the goal of putting pressure and provoking Israel primarily not from the Gaza Strip but in the West Bank and Jerusalem. In a recent speech, he called on all Palestinians to commit acts of terrorism “with a gun, an ax or a knife.” The echo came last Thursday from the Israeli city of Elad, where two young Palestinians killed three people – with an axe.
There has been agitated debate in Israel ever since about whether the country should return to the policy of targeted killings. Hamas grandees have repeatedly fallen victim to such actions in the past. Killing Sinwar is being promoted by proponents as a way to restore Israel’s deterrence. However, it is clear that this will almost certainly lead to a new war – and that this war would do little to change the hopeless situation.