A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is set to begin on Sunday, potentially ending a 15-month conflict. The deal includes a phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Initial terms involve releasing three female hostages for 30 Palestinian detainees, followed by further exchanges over the subsequent weeks. Despite the agreement, uncertainty remains about Gaza’s future governance and reconstruction, exacerbated by Israel’s opposition to Hamas’s role and regional tensions affecting neighboring areas.
Ceasefire Agreement Set to Begin
JERUSALEM/CAIRO (Reuters) – An agreement for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is poised to take effect on Sunday morning, potentially bringing an end to a conflict that has persisted for 15 months.
The three-phase ceasefire is scheduled to commence at 06:30 GMT on Sunday, with the first exchange involving the release of three female hostages in return for 30 Palestinian prisoners, expected in the afternoon.
According to reports from Hamas-affiliated media, Israeli forces have commenced their withdrawal from certain areas in Rafah, located in southern Gaza, moving towards the ‘Philadelphi corridor,’ a designated buffer zone along the border with Egypt.
Future of Gaza Uncertain
The agreement, brokered in Qatar, introduces an initial phase that includes a six-week ceasefire alongside the release of hostages taken by Hamas during the attack on October 7, 2023, in exchange for Palestinian detainees held by Israel.
During this initial phase, 33 out of the 98 remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas, including women, children, and the elderly, will be released. In exchange, Israel is set to release nearly 2,000 Palestinians from its prisons, consisting of 737 men, women, and adolescents, some of whom are affiliated with Palestinian militant groups.
Following Sunday’s release, the agreement stipulates that four additional female hostages will be freed after a week, with three more hostages released every subsequent week, as clarified by Brett McGurk, the primary American negotiator.
This agreement received the green light from the Israeli government on Saturday, just two days prior to Donald Trump’s inauguration as president. Last month, Trump had warned of severe consequences in the Middle East if the hostages were not released before he took office.
However, uncertainty looms over the Gaza Strip’s future following the conflict, especially in the absence of a comprehensive post-war plan. The pathway to peace is fraught with complexities as Palestinians, Arab nations, and Israel must forge a consensus on Gaza’s future—a daunting task given the security assurances demanded by Israel and the significant funding required for reconstruction efforts.
Furthermore, questions remain about who will govern the Gaza Strip, with Israel firmly opposing any arrangement that involves Hamas and showing reluctance towards the Palestinian Authority, which holds limited authority in the occupied West Bank.
The release of hostages may help alleviate public frustration towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, which faced backlash following the October 7 attacks. However, some members of the governing coalition view the ceasefire as a concession to Hamas.
Netanyahu has issued a warning to Hamas, stating that if the group does not disclose the list of hostages to be released on Sunday, Israel will not comply with the ceasefire terms and retains the right to resume military actions. Should hostilities reignite, numerous Israeli hostages may still be left in Gaza.
Regional Implications of the Conflict
The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has sent ripples throughout the Middle East, expanding tensions into the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, while raising concerns about potential escalations involving Iran.
More than a year into the war between Israel and Hamas, the regional landscape has shifted dramatically. The ‘Axis of Resistance,’ led by Iran and including groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, has faced significant challenges, while the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has weakened.
Despite these developments, Israel finds itself diplomatically isolated on the global front due to the conflict. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last November over alleged war crimes in Gaza. Additionally, South Africa has lodged a complaint with the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of committing acts of genocide.
Israel has rejected these allegations, branding them as politically motivated. Since the onset of the siege in Gaza following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, local authorities report nearly 47,000 fatalities, while Israeli sources claim 1,200 individuals were killed and 250 others were seized during the initial assault.