Since the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict began, the Hamas Ministry of Health has reported on casualties in Gaza, but the Israel Defense Forces suggest these numbers are underestimated. A study in The Lancet estimates actual deaths could be 40% higher, with a revised toll of approximately 64,260. This figure excludes indirect fatalities and those missing. Researchers employed a ‘capture-recapture’ method using multiple data sources to verify deaths, while cautioning about potential overestimations due to incomplete records.
War Casualties: A Closer Look at the Gaza Conflict
Since the onset of the 2023 conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Hamas Ministry of Health has consistently released daily updates on the death toll in the Gaza Strip. However, these figures have faced criticism from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who argue that the numbers are likely underestimated. A recent study published in The Lancet sheds light on this issue, revealing a more alarming reality.
Revised Death Toll Estimates from The Lancet Study
The esteemed British medical journal reports that the actual death toll may be approximately 40% higher than the figures cited by the Ministry of Health in the Palestinian territory during the initial nine months of the conflict. Specifically, the ministry recorded 37,877 deaths from October to June 2024, while The Lancet estimates that between 55,298 and 78,525 fatalities resulted from traumatic injuries in Gaza during the same timeframe.
According to The Lancet’s analysis, the likely number of deaths stands at 64,260, which is 41% above the Ministry of Health’s reported toll. This staggering count represents about 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, equating to roughly one in every 35 residents. It’s important to note that this figure only accounts for deaths caused by traumatic injuries and excludes indirect fatalities, such as those resulting from inadequate medical care or food shortages, as well as the thousands of individuals currently unaccounted for, who are presumed to be trapped under debris.
How did the researchers arrive at these estimates? They employed a statistical technique known as ‘capture-recapture,’ which is commonly used to estimate fatalities in various global conflicts. This method utilizes three distinct data sources: the first list is provided by the Ministry of Health, detailing bodies identified in hospitals or morgues; the second comes from an online survey initiated by the Ministry, inviting Palestinians to report their relatives’ deaths; and the third consists of obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, where the deceased’s identity could be verified.
Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the lead author of the study, emphasized that they included only those deaths confirmed by relatives or through hospital records. “We examined the death lists for duplicates,” she explained. “We looked for overlaps among the three lists to derive a comprehensive estimate of the fatalities.”
The study’s authors advised caution regarding the interpretation of the data, noting that hospital records do not always specify the cause of death. This lack of detail could lead to an overestimation, as individuals who passed away from non-traumatic health issues, like heart attacks, might be included. Furthermore, the analysis does not consider the missing persons, with the UN humanitarian agency OCHA estimating that around 10,000 residents of Gaza are presumed missing and may be buried under rubble.