Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision has dynamited partisan balances on the left, the right and the far right.
Analysts who predicted a status quo after the European elections are in for a loss. The one-round vote organized on Sunday triggered powerful earthquakes, starting with the dissolution of the National Assembly, announced by Emmanuel Macron on the evening of the results. Constitution of a New Popular Front on the left, major crisis within LR and Reconquête, deep doubts within the majority… Franceinfo returns, block by block, to a week which profoundly reshaped the French political landscape before the legislative elections on Sunday June 30 and July 7.
In the majority, Gabriel Attal and Emmanuel Macron are in charge of a very high-risk campaign
“I believed in the 20% until the end.” Monday noon, a majority leader has a hangover. The list led by Valérie Hayer for the European elections peaks at 14.6%, not even half the score of the National Rally (31.37%). In the wake of the results, Emmanuel Macron announced, Sunday evening at 8:58 p.m., his decision to dissolve the National Assembly, plunging his camp into the unknown. Some voices are being heard to criticize a decision “brutal”as Gabriel Attal conceded in front of the now ex-majority deputies, Tuesday morning. “There was another path, which was the path of a coalition, of a government pact”said the outgoing president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, on Monday.
Many outgoing deputies immediately go on campaign, “stunned”. With a notable change compared to 2022 and especially 2017: the face of the head of state is often absent from the leaflets. “I definitely don’t want to be linked to him during this campaign”launches one of them, Tuesday, on a market in Ile-de-France. “The president wanted his face everywhere, some made him realize that it was perhaps better without him”slips a ministerial advisor to franceinfo.
To try to regain control, Emmanuel Macron holds a long press conference, first scheduled for Tuesday then postponed until Wednesday morning. He returns at length to the political situation in the country, puts the extremes back to back and highlights his “sincere and humble desire to build consensus and weave compromises” thanks to the help of “social democrats” on the one hand, the Republican right on the other.
The President of the Republic entrusts Gabriel Attal, his Prime Minister since January, with the task of leading a short and defensive campaign. The head of government leaves for Pas-de-Calais on Thursday, where he confirms that the unemployment insurance reform, contested on the left, will indeed be the subject of a decree “by July 1”. In the evening, on the set of the show “Daily”he attacks the two other blocs who seek to bring down his government, more threatened than ever.
As in 2022, the left unites despite divisions
On the evening of the European elections, the left is beaten and ranks third. Raphaël Glucksmann (PS-Place publique list) and the socialists did not exceed either Valérie Hayer (Renaissance and allies) or 15%. Manon Aubry and the rebels remained below 10%, while Les Ecologistes-EELV narrowly retained their seats by exceeding the fateful 5% mark. As soon as the dissolution was announced, calls for union from the left multiplied. Amiens François Ruffin opens the ball: “I say to Marine Tondelier, Fabien Roussel, Olivier Faure, Jean-Luc Mélenchon: ‘Do we want to win together or lose separately?'”
In principle, everyone agrees to build a union in the face of the far right and the possibility of seeing the RN come to power. But under what conditions? Should we keep the electoral balances of the Nupes of 2022, favorable to La France insoumise, or take more into account the first place of the PS in the European elections? Despite disagreements, the first stone was laid Monday evening, when the PS, the PCF, Les Ecologistes-EELV and LFI declared that they wanted “the constitution of a New Popular Front” via “unique applications from the first round” legislative elections.
Everything, or almost everything, remains to be decided: the program, the incarnation, the constituencies. It is on this last point that the negotiations are the most tense. “They don’t care about us”, plagues Thursday morning a socialist who finds LFI too greedy on the number of constituencies. The party bosses intervened, the discussions resumed and the New Popular Front announced in the evening that it had “sealed” A “government program” and a distribution of nominations.
The project is approved by former socialist president François Hollande, opposed to Nupes in 2022. For Raphaël Glucksmann too, “unity is the only way” to block the far right. United, the left promises to “life changing, truly”, summarizes ecologist Marine Tondelier during a joint press conference organized Friday at midday. The New Popular Front presents its program, gives pledges in the fight against anti-Semitism in particular, but still refuses to give the name of its Prime Minister in the event of victory.
The Republicans implode after Eric Ciotti joins the National Rally
From twist to twist, the right has experienced one of the most turbulent weeks in its history. It all starts on Sunday evening with the low score of 7.25% achieved by François-Xavier Bellamy, head of the Les Républicains list in the European elections. “The macronie is over now”, blurted Eric Ciotti on TF1, his eyes fixed on Valérie Hayer’s score. The president of the Republicans probably does not know it yet, but the following days will make him the most scrutinized politician in France. Courted, first, when Jordan Bardella “hold out your hand” to the Republicans, Monday evening on RTLclaiming to have had “discussions” with some of their executives. The RN is ready not to present candidates against LRs “to bring together”adds Marine Le Pen on TF1.
Tuesday is decisive for LR. On TF1, Eric Ciotti takes everyone by surprise by announcing his wish for an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s party for the legislative elections. In the process, almost all of the leaders of the right-wing party condemn this individual position. “No one knew, he stepped on all of our heads”, exclaims Emilie Bonnivard, outgoing deputy for Savoie. Multiple frames demand his departure from the head of the partywhile some elected officials slam the door of political training.
A political bureau of the Republicans decided, Wednesday, unanimously and in his absence, to exclude the deputy from Alpes-Maritimes. Former MP Annie Genevard and MEP François-Xavier Bellamy take the interim role. But Eric Ciotti doesn’t see it that way: “I am and remain the president of our political party, elected by the members”he reacts on the social network “criminal consequences”.
Thursday was no less intense on the right: Eric Ciotti took back possession of his office at the party headquarters, publishes a video of this return who goes viral on social networks and announces that he will contest his dismissal in court. Friday, a new LR political office validates this exclusion, canceled by justice, while Jordan Bardella announces on BFMTV that “in 70 constituencies in France, there will be a common RN-LR candidate”including outgoing MPs.
Looking towards Matignon, Jordan Bardella and the RN fracture Reconquest
The National Rally has no time to savor its score in the European elections, the best in its history. After obtaining, to its great surprise, the dissolution it demanded, the party went straight back into the campaign. Building on his momentum, he announced his objective for the early legislative elections on Sunday evening: winning a majority in the National Assembly to have Jordan Bardella appointed Prime Minister, an ambition revealed on Monday on a poster.
Since then, meetings have continued to develop the program and decide on the question of investitures. The RN already had 577 names, for all constituencies, thanks to a “Matignon plan” that it had been developing since March 2023. But the surprise announcement from Eric Ciotti, Tuesday, in favor of an alliance between LR and the RN , reshuffles the cards. Jordan Bardella accepts the proposal of the dissident president of LR. On Wednesday, the RN received new support, that of Marion Maréchal, a defector who moved to Reconquête. Freshly elected MEP after leading the list of the party founded by Eric Zemmour, she calls to vote for the candidates of the alliance between the RN and LR rather than for those invested by Reconquête.
A few hours later, Eric Zemmour denounces “treason” and announces the exclusion of Marion Maréchal, as well as that of European deputies Guillaume Peltier, Nicolas Bay and Laurence Trochu. There will be no electoral agreement between Reconquête and the RN, but at least four close to Marion Maréchal will have the RN nomination, including Agnès Marion and Thibaut Monnier.
Thursday, the RN reveals his profession of faith. A leaflet with eight measures, firstly for purchasing power, the end of “judicial laxity” and some “migratory submergence”. The party must complete its list of 577 candidates “In the weekend”, before the deadline for submitting lists on Sunday at 6 p.m. He also prepares a detailed program, to present the measures he would implement “emergency” if he won the legislative elections, and the reforms which would take place subsequently.
The RN’s week was, however, marked by a hitch, with the blunder of party spokesperson Sébastien Chenu, who defended Thursday evening on the set of “Touche pas à mon poste” the abolition of dual nationality, a measure abandoned by Marine Le Pen in 2022.