From Nupes to RN, what impact for political parties?

Crisis meeting at Matignon. Elisabeth Borne received this Monday evening the representatives of all the political groups in Parliament. After six nights of violence which followed the death of the young Nahel, killed by police fire on June 27 in Nanterre, the leaders of left and right find themselves around the Prime Minister. A meeting which follows severe jousting between the different camps since last week. What impact do these events have on each of the parties?

We take stock with Benjamin Morel, doctor of political science from ENS Paris-Saclay and lecturer at Paris-Panthéon-Assas.

Emmanuel Macron and the majority

As soon as the video of the policeman shooting Nahel was broadcast, the government found itself under fire from critics from the left, asking it to reform the police. And in particular the repeal of article 435-1 of the internal security code, which relates to the self-defense of the police. With the first nights of riots, the right and the National Rally also put pressure on the executive. Emmanuel Macron and his government then dismissed the idea of ​​​​setting up a state of emergency, demanded in particular by Les Républicains, preferring to increase the number of police and gendarmes in cities under tension. “Order” is “being restored”, assured Monday the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, after a night without major incident.

The opinion of Benjamin Morel “In this kind of crisis, the electorate seeks a form of embodiment and expects strong answers. Paradoxically, it is a comfortable position for Emmanuel Macron and the majority, who can embody unity. This personalization of action in the face of the crisis can serve the president, or Gérald Darmanin. The executive has also been effective in this crisis communication, trying to trigger drape effectsux. But basically, the levers to bring calm are not obvious, and the political price could be very high if such events occurred during the Rugby World Cup or the Olympic Games in Paris, for example.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the Nupes

“We cannot give the feeling of encouraging and accepting violence”. The urban riots have highlighted in recent days the differences within the Nupes, where the boss of the PS, Olivier Faure, has made known, like Fabien Roussel (PCF), his “profound disagreement” with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Since the start of the violence, the rebels have been sharply criticized by the right, the RN and the government, for not having wanted to condemn the violence, at least initially, contenting themselves with calling “for justice”.

But in recent hours, LFI seems to have changed its point. Like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who expressed his “absolute disavowal” on Sunday after the car-ram attack on the house of the mayor of L’Haÿ-les-Roses (Val-de-Marne). A change of foot too late?

Benjamin Morel’s opinion: “At first, LFI considered in a clear-cut way that the riots were above all a sign of a deep malaise in the neighborhoods. This strategy appeared ambiguous and inaudible in the face of the exceptional nature of the overflows, which were poorly assessed by the rebels. This position collides with other problematic sequences, such as Mélenchon’s “police kill” statement, and arouses tensions within Nupes itself. It was difficult to maintain, which prompted LFI to backpedal. »

Eric Ciotti and The Republicans

The right was very offensive in the aftermath of the first riots in the cities of France. “Under no circumstances can the Republic submit. I call for the immediate initiation of a state of emergency wherever incidents have broken out, ”claimed Eric Ciotti last Thursday. But the boss of the Republicans has more castigated the attitude of the rebels rather than the action of the government: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a “rebellious” and “a danger for the Republic”, who “is no longer in the Republican arc,” he said. The right, however, asked for tough legal responses, such as the boss of the LR deputies, Olivier Marleix, who wishes “the abolition of family allowances for the parents of delinquent children”.

Benjamin Morel’s opinion: “The priority of LR, which is struggling to exist in the media space, is to stand out from the majority. Because Emmanuel Macron governs in the center-right, and on economic issues, there is not a big gap. In this sequence, the right took the opportunity to put forward its solutions on the sovereign against those of the government, deemed too “soft”, and to play credibility against the RN. It’s a complicated position, because the right is caught in a vice.

Marine Le Pen and the RN

Once again, Marine Le Pen has been rather discreet in the face of events. Until last Thursday, the National Rally also preferred to kick the state of emergency, requested by Eric Zemmour and the right. Friday, after another night of riots, the president of the RN group preferred to call for “sector curfews” and, in the event of the situation worsening only, for “the state of emergency”. She also called on Emmanuel Macron to receive the parties represented in the Assembly “to discuss the serious situation in the country” and possible initiatives. According to an Ifop poll for FigarohMarine Le Pen would be the political figure least weakened by the sequence, with 39% of French people saying they were satisfied with her attitude, ahead of Emmanuel Macron (33%), far ahead of Eric Ciotti (24%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (20 %).

Benjamin Morel’s opinion: “By not saying much, as it has done on pensions and since the start of the term, the RN maintains a strategy which seems to pay off in public opinion. Rather than demonization, the RN aims for credibility, maintaining a position that wants to be respectable, by strategy of contrast. In contrast with the government, which would be a bad manager. In contrast to LFI, deemed unreasonable. And in contrast to LR, whose proposals sometimes appear more extreme, which further disturbs the political game.


source site