Government optimism regarding greenhouse gas emission reductions is challenged by recent data revealing a slowing decline as 2024 approaches. While emissions dropped by 5.8% in 2023, the first three quarters of 2024 show only a 2.4% reduction. Sector-specific increases, particularly in buildings and transport, raise concerns. France’s goal for carbon neutrality by 2050 remains at risk, with the need for significant improvements to meet the 2030 targets effectively.
Government’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Goals: A Troubling Outlook for 2024
Recently, the government expressed confidence in its progress towards meeting greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. However, emerging data suggests that this optimism may be misplaced as we approach 2024.
Citepa, the organization overseeing France’s emission inventory, released updated figures on December 27, revealing a concerning trend for the last quarter of 2024. While emissions declined by 5.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, the rate of reduction is slowing significantly. For the first three quarters of 2024, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have only decreased by 2.4% compared to the same timeframe last year, a stark contrast to the 6% drop noted in the first nine months of 2023.
Sector-Specific Challenges in Emission Reductions
Further analysis shows that emissions fell by 5% and 2.2% in the initial two quarters of 2024, but unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in the third quarter. Although we await the complete annual data, Citepa indicates that the trend over the past 12 months stands at a mere 3.1% reduction.
France aims for carbon neutrality by 2050 in alignment with the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming to well below 2°C. The country has established a National Low-Carbon Strategy, currently in its third iteration, which was open for public consultation until December 15. This roadmap includes a target to halve emissions from 1990 levels by 2030, necessitating an average annual reduction of 4.7% from 2022 to 2030, translating to a decrease of 16 million tons of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2 eq.) each year.
While France made notable progress in 2023, the prospects for 2024 appear grim unless unexpected improvements occur in the coming months. In the first half of 2024, all major sectors contributed to GHG emission reductions, particularly energy production, buildings, industry, and transport. However, the third quarter revealed a different reality, with an 11.8% increase in emissions from the buildings sector due to heating, along with a 1.1% rise in transport emissions.
Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, emphasized the need for vigilance, stating, “We must not let our guard down,” even as she acknowledged that the current situation still maintains a trajectory towards the 2030 targets. However, relying on past successes to justify current shortcomings poses a significant risk.
Last June, the High Council for Climate cautioned against overestimating emission reductions, attributing a substantial portion of the 2023 decrease to non-reproducible cyclical factors. These included the normalization of electricity production following the shutdown of several nuclear plants and the previous year’s water scarcity in reservoirs.