France has been busy with this date for days. Less than an hour after the government presented the plans for the controversial pension reform last week, the unions announced the first strike for January 19.
For Macron it is about the “mother of all reforms” and “for us it will be the mother of all struggles,” the head of the French union Force Ouvrière, Frédéric Souillot, had threatened in advance. The head of the radical trade union CGT, Philippe Martinez, expects “millions” to take part in the protest marches across France.
This Thursday, on average, only every third to fifth TGV and every tenth regional train should run. In Paris, three metro lines are to be completely canceled and many others are only partially operating. Strikes have also been announced in schools, in refineries and in the energy sector.
Many MPs from the extreme left to the extreme right reject the reform
The pension reform is probably the most sensitive project in the second term of office of French President Emmanuel Macron. His plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 and extend the contribution period to 43 years are not well received by many. Most of the opposition in the National Assembly, from the extreme left to the extreme right, have already announced that they will vote against the bill. The otherwise fragmented French unions have come together and in a joint statement called for protests.
There is also great dissatisfaction among the population. one Study by the Ifop Institute according to more than two-thirds of French people are against the government’s reform plans. According to the survey, about half welcome the strike this Thursday. “But just because many are supporting the demonstrations doesn’t mean that the social explosives have to explode,” says Hugo Lasserre from the Ifop Institute, which conducted the study.
The pollster is yet to decide whether the strikes and protests will actually paralyze the country for weeks, or whether the yellow vests might even return. The energy crisis and inflation could also result in fewer people taking to the streets. “For many people, the current crisis is leading to a kind of resignation,” says Lasserre.
“If you’re afraid of not making ends meet at the end of the month, you can’t necessarily afford an unpaid day of strike,” says sociologist Guy Groux of Sciences Po Paris. In addition, the strike culture in France is changing. The importance of trade unions has been declining for years.
The yellow vest protests, which shook the country for months from autumn 2018, were organized independently of traditional structures, of parties and trade unions. The strike by the controllers of the state railway SNCF, which blocked train traffic shortly before Christmas, did not come from the unions either. Predicting how protests will develop is therefore becoming increasingly difficult.
“If the population suffers too much from strikes, they will show less solidarity with the strikers.”
For Guy Groux, whether the strikes and demonstrations in the coming weeks will actually plunge France into a crisis depends primarily on who takes part. “If the employees in the energy sector stop working, it can already lead to a serious deadlock.” According to Groux, public opinion could then change: “If the population suffers too much from the strikes, they will show less solidarity with the strikers.”
Both the pollster Hugo Lasserre and the sociologist Guy Groux consider it unlikely that the protests will actually lead to the government having to abandon its plans. Even the French population does not seem to think so. In the study by the Ifop Institute, two-thirds of those questioned stated that they expect the reform to be implemented despite the protests.
The strikes in the coming weeks will primarily be about the unions reassuring themselves, says Guy Groux. “They still manage to gather people selectively and economically. Nothing more.”
In fact, there are many indications that the French government can push through its plans despite the resistance. The conservative Republicans have already signaled that they could vote in Parliament for the reform project.
The coming weeks will show whether Macron’s government will actually get a majority. Otherwise, it could push through the reform using the controversial Article 49(3) of the French constitution. This makes it possible to pass laws without parliament. This option, in turn, is likely to fuel negative sentiment on the streets.