Just because something looks childish doesn’t make it harmless. Since the end of January, the French presidential candidates Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen have been publicly fighting a show that is more reminiscent of a TV soap opera than politics. But that doesn’t change the fact that both continue to represent right-wing extremist ideas. And not because both candidates together come to almost 30 percent approval in the polls. Marine Le Pen never achieved such a value on her own.
Strategically, the interesting question might be: will Le Pen and Zemmour contest each other’s votes? They could prevent each other from entering the runoff election that will be held in France on April 24 to decide who will be the next president. If you look at an election less like a strategy game, then another question arises: How can it be that there is room for two far-right candidates in France?
The current dispute provides part of the answer. On the surface, the crux of the matter is that some of Le Pen’s supporters defected to Zemmour in late January. The best-known example is Gilbert Collard. The MEP was already in the Front National before Marine Le Pen renamed the party the Rassemblement National (RN) in 2018. Now, Collard has left the RN to devote himself full-time to what he calls “culture warfare” alongside Zemmour. MEP Jérome Rivière, among others, had previously switched to Zemmour.
At a meeting of European right-wing populists in Madrid last weekend, Marine Le Pen said “anyone who wants to go should do so now”. This openly declared war against Zemmour.
Zemmour was convicted of racist hate speech
Those who switch from Le Pen to Zemmour are doing so less out of political power calculations than out of ideological conviction. Ex-journalist Zemmour, who only announced his candidacy for the presidency in December, likes to present himself as a non-politician. His campaign is a series of provocations. He stays in the conversation because he constantly outdoes himself in the harshness of his statements.
So he said on Wednesday at the event of a police union that the officers would “not face criminals, but a different civilization with which one cannot live together”. For years, Zemmour has been talking of France’s imminent demise, of the “colonization of the country” by immigrants and Muslims, and of an approaching civil war. When Zemmour was again convicted of racist hate speech in January because he had blanketly described migrant children as “thieves, murderers and rapists”, this was celebrated in his supporters’ camp as proof of his courage.
Marine Le Pen has struck a different note in recent years. As part of her famous “deviling strategy,” the daughter of fascist Jean-Marie Le Pen is moderate, emphasizing that she is “neither right nor left.” Unlike Zemmour, Le Pen does not only focus on issues of the identitarian right. She deliberately goes after voters in the lower middle class. Many who used to vote for the communists now vote for Le Pen.
Zemmour, on the other hand, is courting those sections of the middle class who share his anti-Islamic and xenophobic theses but want liberal economic policies. These two different voter addresses have increased the voting potential of the right-wing extremists.
In fact, Le Pen and Zemmour differ less. Both focus primarily on promising the French border closures, deportations and a ban on immigration.
Marine Le Pen is now close to the people
Le Pen could benefit more from the current dispute between the two camps than Zemmour. She uses the competition with Zemmour to assume a kind of martyr position. The situation is “very painful, but the French deserve that I sacrifice everything for them,” said Le Pen. The victim role was relieved after her niece Marion Maréchal said she could only imagine political commitment for Zemmour . Marine Le Pen then gave a television interview in which she was very emotional. Marion Maréchal’s words are “very brutal”, but she “raised the 32-year-old herself”.
And so that no one forgets that the right-wing extremists in France traditionally gather around the Le Pens in a clan structure, family patriarch Jean-Marie Le Pen also got involved. He would “of course support his daughter” Marine Le Pen, that was “completely natural”.
To differentiate himself from Zemmour, Le Pen is now trying two things. First, she tries to underline his radicalism. It’s unclear whether Zemmour’s use or harm, after all, analyzes show that his potential voters value him precisely for the brutality of his statements. Anyway, Le Pen said so on Friday Figaro, in the ranks of the Zemmour supporters are “some Nazis”. In the regional elections in the summer of 2021, Le Pen faced the problem that her electoral lists included candidates who stood out because of racist statements and connections to the hooligan scene.
Secondly, Le Pen emphasizes that she is the candidate close to the people. On Saturday, Le Pen will hold her big campaign launch in Reims. At the same time, Zemmour invites his followers to Lille in northern France. While Zemmour relies on huge screens and a sea of flags, as in his previous meetings, Le Pen wants the big “tour of the markets” from Reims.
In the coming weeks, their party members and helpers are to drive 500 buses through the country and persuade the citizens to vote for them. Zemmour, on the other hand, has had little success attempting to make contact with the French on the street. In Marseille he had clashed with anti-fascist demonstrators. Anti-Zemmour protests have also been announced for Saturday in Lille. Hardly anyone takes to the streets against Le Pen.