Four weeks before the general election – Unexpected dynamics – District of Munich

Four weeks until the federal election – and the parties look at the polls with astonishment, either with horror or euphoria. The SPD in high, the Union in free fall and the Greens behind their own expectations. What do the members think? The SZ asked around at the base.

Fear

For Anton Fritzmaier, the chairman of the CSU parliamentary group in the Hohenbrunn municipal council, it is time to focus on the essentials: “The CDU / CSU must now show itself as a union, appear uniformly and fight together for every vote. Because it will really be very close,” predicts the entrepreneur, who is from one late move from Armin Laschet to Markus Söder nothing holds. Laschet said, “mishaps and mistakes” happened as a candidate for Chancellor, but it was “unrealistic” to overturn everything four weeks before the election: “The posters have been printed, how is that supposed to work?”

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Gerlinde Koch-Dörringer, CSU councilor from Kirchheim and for many years the district chairman of the women’s union, Laschet does not consider the ideal candidate for chancellor. “The right candidate would have been Markus Söder.” Nevertheless, it is now important to support the Prime Minister from North Rhine-Westphalia. “When the Union no longer co-governs, I see black,” she says and has to laugh at the political theory of colors. But Laschet had the potential to develop, he had “also not got into his position with the lottery ticket”. The woman from Kirchheim works herself in the telephone election campaign. “I often hear that it was Söder.” She still has a bit of hope for a candidate swap: “Maybe there will be another miracle.”

Speculated on such a thing Eduard Boger, Putzbrunn CSU municipal council, definitely not: “I don’t think so, because that would be an act of fear.” Rather, Laschet must finally be more specific: “He has not yet understood how to get his messages across.” It is not surprising that in the shadow of Angela Merkel no clear successor has developed. Nevertheless, one shouldn’t underestimate the Rhinelander: “Laschet is a puller, not a showman. But with the current challenges we don’t need someone who just shines, but someone who brings us forward decisively.” A red-red-green coalition would be “economically a disaster for the country,” says Putzbrunner. The Union must be happy to be in the race at all: “If the Greens had nominated Robert Habeck, he would probably have gone unassailable.”

Jan Kämmerer, chairman of the Junge Union in the district, relies on a late change of opinion: “First the Greens were in front, now it’s the SPD – and then maybe the Union on election day.” Therein lies the incentive to hit everything on the home straight, “in the doorstep election campaign, at information stands and on social media”. For the man from Unterschleißheim, the fact that the SPD is suddenly in such a good position is due to the fact that it restricts itself to its core issues in the election campaign. “The Union should also focus on the debt brake, innovations, securing external borders and internal security.” To put climate protection too much in the foreground does not bring additional voters. “You shouldn’t go into the election campaign with compromises.”

dream

Philipp Schwarz, parliamentary group leader of the Unterföhringer SPD in the local councilknows what defeat feels like. In the 2020 local elections, he was clearly defeated by the incumbent as mayoral candidate in the first round. But he doesn’t want to think about defeat in the federal election. “I was a bit astonished that the SPD was catching up like that,” says Schwarz and has an explanation ready: “Scholz is an amazing campaigner.” While for some other election campaigns can be grueling. From his point of view, the rise of the SPD is not due to the weakness of the other candidates, but to the strength of the campaigner Scholz and his “objective and serious manner”, which is reminiscent of Helmut Schmidt.

This objectivity also emphasizes Neubiberg’s SPD councilor Elisabeth Gerner – especially in difficult times. Even in the light of the Afghanistan crisis, Gerner says that “the calm, level-headed manner” of one’s own candidate for chancellor is required. But it also depends on the content. “And maybe word gets around now that the SPD is making good and sensible policies that they will appreciate.” She believes that the party and its candidate have even more potential: “I’m sure there will be a few percentage points more in there before the election. The SPD can become the strongest force.”

Believe in it too Juso Kevin Cobbe from Aschheim. “You can tell from the election campaign stands that the mood is turning. The reactions are now completely different. And that motivates us, we are in the mood for the election campaign.” Cobbe is certain that, unlike the Schulz train in 2017, this trend will not die down. “You can tell that it will be more sustainable.” He does not want to share the initial skepticism of the SPD youngsters towards the candidate: “Scholz has developed into the candidate of the heart. And I too can fully support the election program.” It is about becoming the strongest force in the election. And then? “It is important to have a federal government without the participation of the Union.”

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Sabine Athen, councilor in Ottobrunn, relies on another Scholz effect: “That he manages to get young people excited about politics. We need them.” The polls would of course inspire the SPD. Athens wishes that they could do something to counteract the noticeable disenchantment with politics. “I hope that we can get people excited about our topics.” She is convinced that the candidate is the right one “in turbulent times”: “He is reliable and tackles the issues with his authentic way.” Of course, the candidates would be compared with each other: “And the others made mistakes.”

Hope

Annalena Baerbock believes in a Chancellor Robert Gerb, Baierbrunn municipal council, no longer: “It would be nice, but it’s unrealistic.” Of course, she made mistakes, but was also criticized very unfairly and “below the belt”. He finds it very annoying that the party has gambled away its good starting position through clumsy behavior and mishaps – as in Saarland, where the state list for the federal election was excluded. The fighting spirit, however, is unbroken: “The climate issue is far too important. The way things are going now, we are not getting anywhere.” The Greens should therefore assume government responsibility, even if compromises are necessary.

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She is more optimistic about a Chancellor Annalena Baerbock Leon Matella, 23. Of the Geography student and Ottobrunner local council relies on the final weeks of the election campaign. “We have a month left and polls are volatile.” Matella is building on addressing voters online, especially since large face-to-face events are not possible: “This year we have dynamics that we haven’t had before.” He regrets that the content is so little in the foreground. In order to make progress on the subject of the global climate, it is important that the Greens come to the federal government, if necessary as a junior partner. “But it is clear that we as a global community have to do it.” And: “We have to make it clear to people that we don’t want to ban everything.”

Renate Grasse, Green Councilor in Pullach, is also motivated. “We have come up with a lot for the election campaign.” There is a “Radlkino” in Pullach, which the artists Jörg Baesecke and Hedwig Rost designed in cooperation with the local association. “When I was pasting posters, I noticed that we were addressing more topics than the others: Not only climate protection, but also racism and diversity.” In addition, the blatant social inequality in the country is an issue that moves Grasse. She found dealing with Baerbock, who did not make any “serious mistakes”, “depressing”. Baerbock has no government experience, “but is very competent in foreign policy”.

Felicia Kocher, Green City Councilor in Garching, is far from overestimating the suboptimal survey results. “We have to focus on the content. Our election program has so much to offer.” She annoys the fact that “two standards were recently measured” and that “the Greens paid special attention to omissions”. The young city councilor is hoping for a change and is looking forward to the election campaign with information stands, events and home visits. She believes in a strong result. They see the fact that the Greens want to subsidize the purchase of cargo bikes on a larger scale: “As far as climate protection is concerned, we will have to make stricter guidelines. And it is – also in order to achieve something at the local level – incredibly valuable when there is funding . “