Forex and Commodities – Unclear Outlook for Oil Price – Economy


The euro gave way on Wednesday. In the evening, the European common currency cost 1.1795 (previous day: 1.1822) dollars. Traders pointed to a dollar rising against almost all major currencies. Weak economic data from Germany weighed on the euro a little. Industrial production fell in May contrary to expectations. In the US, the US Federal Reserve published its minutes of the latest interest rate meeting late in the evening. Market participants should examine the transcript for clues as to whether the Fed is aiming for a somewhat less generous monetary policy. In view of the robust recovery of the US economy from the Corona slump, experts can imagine a less relaxed orientation at the turn of the year.

Oil prices continued their ups and downs. The price of a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea variety Brent fluctuated strongly around its previous day’s close and cost 73.02 dollars in the evening. That was two percent less than on Tuesday. The WTI variety was 2.3 percent cheaper. The prices had already risen to multi-year highs on Tuesday, but then fell sharply. The trigger for the ups and downs was that the powerful oil network Opec + could not agree on a funding strategy for the second half of the year. A targeted expansion of production was canceled due to disagreements between the oil giant Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

One reason for the erratic price movement is that the consequences of the dispute are not clear. On the one hand, the future crude oil supply could be too small to meet the growing demand. On the other hand, it is conceivable that the Opec + oil network will be damaged and that individual countries will no longer adhere to the common strategy of capped production. In this case, the supply could increase significantly.

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