At the beginning of the week, the euro exchange rate benefited only briefly from the election victory of French President Emmanuel Macron. On Monday evening, the common currency cost $ 1.0711, 0.8 percent less than late Friday evening. “The fact that more than 40 percent of voters voted for an opponent of Europe means that at the latest every five years in France there will be a significant event risk for the euro area and its common currency,” warned Commerzbank analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann. Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank, pointed out that the probability is increasing that the ECB, following the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE), will soon initiate the turnaround in interest rates. Against this background, investors fled to “safe havens” such as the world’s leading currency. The dollar index, which tracks rates against other major international currencies, rose 0.6 percent to a two-year high. At the same time, demand for federal bonds pushed the yield on ten-year bonds down to 0.844 percent.
The prospect of falling demand for commodities weighed on many listings. The background to this is the Chinese government’s strict corona measures, which threaten to weigh on economic growth inside and outside of China. Accordingly, lower demand for crude oil, petrol and diesel is expected. The price for a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent fell in evening trading by 5.8 percent to $ 100.37. “The question no longer seems to be whether, but only how severe a recession will be in Europe,” said investment strategist Jürgen Molnar from the brokerage house RoboMarkets. “And even for the US economy, which is still relatively stable, such a scenario can no longer be ruled out.”