For a month, the Russians have been “nibbling” “small areas” in the Donbass, what has changed?

It is around Bakhmout that most of the movements have been taking place for several weeks in Ukraine. And if Russia seems to be getting there to its advantage, claiming several “takes” of towns and villages in January, some denied by kyiv, how to interpret these minimal victories on the scale of the country in the dynamics of the conflict? “It tramples a lot”, sums up to 20 minutes Olivier Kempf, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

Claimed Russian advances…

On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed in its daily update that “the locality of Blagodatné had been liberated”. The day before, the head of the Russian occupation in the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin had proclaimed victory in Vougledar, quickly denied by kyiv. For several days, the Russians have indeed created a second focus of fighting, 130 kilometers south-west of Bakhmout, in this small town of about 15,000 inhabitants before the war. And the situation is “very tense” for the Ukrainian army. By the very admission of Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ganna Maliar, Russia is “outnumbered” and “intensified” its fighting in the Donetsk region.

“There is a force dynamic on the Russian side and the front is not immobile”, confirms to 20 minutes Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise. Admittedly, the Russians are “nibbling” but they are advancing all the same, specifies Olivier Kempf. This “strategy of attrition” adopted by the Russian army “seems to wear down the Ukrainians so that they no longer have the initiative”, he adds. For the moment, kyiv is resisting even if in the long term, this strategy “may pay off because it forces the party opposite to consume all its efforts, its reserves”, he continues.

…All the kept proportions

“In general, the front is holding up, nuance Olivier Schmitt, professor at the Center for War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark, contacted by 20 minutes. There is no penetration of the front, no envelopment of Ukrainian forces and no great development of the dynamics of operations”. And if we have no objective quantification of the losses on both sides, the Russian forces also suffer a lot from these offensives which are not that significant. Especially compared to the counter-offensives operated by the Ukrainian forces since September, in particular the recapture of the city of Kherson.

Whether it’s Blagodatné, Vougledar or even Soledar, “if we really look at the volume of land that has recently been taken by the Russians or that could fall, it’s quite small on the surface”, underlines Olivier Schmitt. Thanks to these “small gains that accumulate, Moscow can play on the impression that it is regaining ground, which is part of a coordinated manner with a communication strategy aimed at weakening Western support for kyiv”, observes. -he. However, these victories remain minimal and much less decisive than if Moscow managed to take a city like Bakhmout, coveted for months. “Despite undeniable military damage, these are confetti”, abounds Isabelle Dufour.

And the tanks will enter the dance

Between “120 and 140” Western heavy tanks will be delivered to kyiv in the coming months. This was a repeated request from Ukraine. But can they really change the game on the ground? “A weapon system in itself does not change the course of the war, slice Isabelle Dufour, but it can allow the Ukrainians to regain the advantage. Indeed, “if they are useful, it is not a magic weapon”, adds Olivier Kempf, especially since the multitude of models that will be delivered (Challengers 2, Leopard 2, Abrams 1, etc.) , entails as much organization, logistics, training. “It will take time to see a real effect on the ground and in a war of attrition, time is not on Ukraine’s side,” warns Olivier Kempf.

The question will also be to see how the Ukrainian forces will integrate these armored vehicles into their force structure. Will they use it to replenish lost units or create new structures? “There would be more opportunities with the second option because it would allow us to resume the offensive,” explains Isabelle Dufour. So “if the Ukrainians manage to use these tanks effectively, yes it can work”, according to Olivier Kempf. In the meantime, the front could stabilize, knowing that on both sides, there are “significant rotations, which signal a desire to regain movement and offensive”, analyzes Isabelle Dufour. Especially since another element could also be decisive here: the weather. The thaw involves the thawing of the land and the risk of getting heavy machinery stuck in the mud can also slow down the advances of the front.

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