The Russian invasion of Ukraine started nearly 150 days ago. If the positions on the ground seem stabilized, the fighting continues to rage as Moscow targets various cities deemed key. Moreover, Russia has announced that it does not intend to be satisfied with the east of the country.
Added to the military war is the commercial war, with very strong tensions over Russian gas deliveries to Europe and the question of the export of Ukrainian cereals blocked in the ports. And meanwhile, the EU is advancing its pawns on the geopolitical chessboard by strengthening its ties with the Balkans.
Battles in the East
Moscow this week discussed an extension of its offensive beyond eastern Ukraine, as strikes combine with fighting that does not fundamentally change the situation on the front. The Ukrainian presidency office notably reported the bombing of industrial infrastructure in Kramatorsk (east) and a gas station, a pipeline and a warehouse in Mykolaiv (south). For its part, kyiv still targets enemy military reserves.
In the North-East, 3 people were killed and 23 others injured in a Russian bombardment on Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, claimed to have repelled a Russian ground assault towards Pytomnyk, 10 km to the north. In the east, London spoke of fighting near the Vuhlehirska power station, 50 km northeast of Donetsk, in the Donbass. And Moscow wants to “continue its effort” in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
The gas battle rages on
In order to get through the winter without a major disaster, the European Commission has prepared an arsenal of measures allowing the EU27 to deal with a possible break in Russian supplies – which constituted 40% of their gas imports last year. Brussels thus proposed on Wednesday a plan aimed at reducing European demand by 15%. At the same time, after ten days of maintenance, Russia partially reopened the gas tap to Europe by restarting the Nord Stream gas pipeline on Thursday.
Azerbaijan, the United States… the EU is trying to find new sources of supply, while everyone is trying to fill their stocks for next winter.
Crucial wheat deal
This is the major breakthrough this week regarding the conflict: an agreement between Ukraine and Russia was signed this Friday to export the tonnes of cereals in distress via the Black Sea. Turkey and the United Nations are part of this plan. This is enough to relieve the world markets, the two belligerents alone weighing 30% of the world wheat trade.
Secure corridors will allow the traffic of merchant ships, whose strict neutrality Moscow and kyiv undertake to respect. In return, Russia obtained the guarantee that Western sanctions will not apply, either directly or indirectly, to its exports of agricultural products and fertilizers.
Applications to integrate the EU are accelerating
At the start of the week, Brussels opened accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, two files launched eight and seventeen years ago. At this stage, they join two other Western Balkan countries, Serbia and Montenegro.
These new chapters come after the acceptance, at the beginning of the month by the European Union, of Ukraine’s candidacy.