According to the Federal Employment Agency, skilled workers are missing in 200 of around 1,200 professions in Germany – 52 professions more than in the previous year. Nursing, childcare and the construction industry are particularly affected.
In every sixth profession in Germany there is a shortage of skilled workers. This is the result of an analysis by the Federal Employment Agency (BA). Accordingly, there was a bottleneck in 200 of the approximately 1,200 professions assessed last year. That was 52 more than a year earlier, said the authority in Nuremberg. This means that the number of bottleneck occupations has risen to a new high.
According to the analysis, the nursing professions, professional drivers, medical specialists, construction and craft professions, childcare, automotive engineering and IT professions are particularly affected by the shortage of skilled workers. Compared to the previous year, hotel or catering services, metal construction and bus drivers have been added in 2022. According to the study, half of the vacancies last year were in one of these occupations with a shortage of skilled workers.
Supply and demand are drifting apart
However, the study also makes it clear how much there is a difference between supply and demand when it comes to filling vacancies: Of the skilled workers who were registered as unemployed, only 26 percent were looking for a job in one of the bottleneck occupations. According to the BA, there is an increasing shortage in this part of the labor market for skilled workers compared to previous years.
However, there is no evidence of a general labor shortage. Employment and employment subject to social security contributions would have increased significantly in 2022. Most recently, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.5 percent in May. Nevertheless, companies’ need for new workers continued to increase. In the fourth quarter of last year, the IAB job survey reported another record with almost two million vacancies.
For the analysis of the shortage of skilled workers, the Federal Employment Agency considers around 1200 occupational fields and evaluates them on the basis of a total of 14 indicators. We speak of a bottleneck occupation when six indicators predominantly point to a bottleneck. These include, for example, the length of time registered positions have been filled, the job-specific unemployment rate and the development of wages. In addition to the bottleneck occupations, another 157 occupational categories are under observation according to the BA because of the high point value.
Job transformation through artificial intelligence
Another challenge on the labor market is the currently booming artificial intelligence (AI). According to the UN development agency UNDP, the countries of the world must prepare themselves better individually for the expected changes. States with a young population would have to cope with completely different challenges than older societies due to possible loss of employment, said UNDP boss Achim Steiner of the dpa news agency. “And as always, it is much more likely that the society that is preparing for this will not in some way automatically slide into this situation, but can devise transition strategies that are much more likely to reap the benefits.”
When looking for ways to master the new technology, it will have to be examined “much more carefully and in a more differentiated manner” in future as to what type of jobs could be affected, which could be eliminated and which could be newly created. It is also important that no false incentives are created to drive automation even faster. As an example of such false incentives, Steiner, the highest German UN representative, cited the fact that human work is generally taxed more heavily than mechanized work performed by robots.
The World Economic Forum estimates that there will be significant upheaval in a quarter of all jobs within the next five years due to the rapid pace of AI development. The media and entertainment, public administration, education, agriculture, health, energy, manufacturing and hotel and catering sectors are particularly affected. Accordingly, there will be new roles primarily in the areas of technology and digitization.