As the 2025 Bundestag election approaches, the FDP, Left, and BSW face challenges in surpassing the critical five percent threshold required for parliamentary representation. While the FDP struggles to maintain relevance, the Left sees renewed interest among younger voters, focusing on housing issues. Meanwhile, the BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, aims to disrupt traditional politics despite internal strife. The election’s outcome will significantly impact coalition dynamics, making this a crucial moment for all parties involved.
Countdown to the Bundestag Election 2025
The stakes are high for the FDP, the Left, and the BSW as they grapple with the critical five percent threshold necessary for entering the Bundestag. The performance of these parties will also have significant implications for the Union and SPD.
To gain representation in the Bundestag, a party must secure over five percent of the second votes or clinch at least three direct mandates, as outlined in the new electoral legislation.
In recent weeks, the FDP, BSW, and the Left have been teetering on this precarious threshold in various polls. Each party’s fate hangs in the balance, with results remaining uncertain as they all fall within the typical margin of error for polling data.
The Union’s strategy of courting AfD votes has polarized the nation, raising concerns about potential instability in the government post-election.
FDP’s Struggle for Relevance
The FDP entered the election campaign with aspirations of focusing on economic issues. However, their impact on this topic has been minimal. During the previous Bundestag election in 2021, the FDP garnered substantial support among young voters, with nearly a quarter of first-time voters casting their ballots for them, resulting in an overall tally of 11.5 percent. Currently, the party finds itself consistently under the five percent mark.
At a recent rally in Dresden, FDP candidate Christian Lindner attempted to rally support with humor and confrontational remarks aimed at counter-demonstrators: ‘Keep holding up those posters throughout my speech. The real question is, who will outlast whom, me or your arms?’
Recent discontent within his own faction, where members hesitated to follow Lindner’s lead in the Bundestag, seems to have been overlooked. For the FDP and Lindner, this election is once again a matter of political survival.
In a bid to rejuvenate their campaign, the Liberals are seeking to uplift spirits at an upcoming party convention.
Rising Hopes for the Left
Contrastingly, the Left Party is facing a surge in interest from urban, younger voters. They have gained thousands of new members and followers, with their anti-CDU speeches in the Bundestag going viral and achieving record viewership.
Many observers are discussing a potential resurgence for the Left, reminiscent of the excitement surrounding the SPD’s ‘Schulz Train’ back in 2017. Initially, the Schulz campaign saw a rise in polls, but ultimately led to disappointment on election night and the end of Martin Schulz’s political journey.
Currently, the Left Party is inching closer to the crucial five percent threshold, thanks in part to their dynamic leadership duo.
Left Party’s Focus on Housing and Rent Issues
The Left Party is keen to leverage this newfound attention: ‘When I mentioned we needed a larger venue because the Left is back in vogue, no one believed me,’ co-chair Heidi Reichinnek remarked to the packed audience in Kreuzberg. With an astonished expression, she surveyed around 700 attendees, noting that latecomers had to stand due to the overwhelming turnout. ‘You’re exceeding our expectations, and that’s simply fantastic.’
The Left Party is strategically addressing issues that resonate with younger demographics, such as rent control and housing affordability. Additionally, a proposed exit from NATO has reemerged in their election platform.
Polling data indicates that the once-dormant Left Party is consistently surpassing the five percent mark. Can they capture the youth vote this time, potentially at the expense of the FDP? ‘Whether the Left can translate this enthusiasm into actual votes is uncertain, given the typically low turnout among younger voters,’ observes election analyst Stefan Merz from infratest dimap. ‘The true test will come on February 23.’
After years of internal strife, Wagenknecht has now established her own party, the BSW.
BSW’s Challenge Ahead
During a campaign event in Munich, Sahra Wagenknecht exuded confidence: ‘The crowd in this square proves the doubters wrong; the BSW is not failing and is indeed growing,’ she declared, addressing several hundred attendees. ‘And I assure you, we will disrupt the status quo as a formidable faction in the next Bundestag.’
Wagenknecht, a former member of the Left, is drawing crowds even in the chilly weather of Munich, even though Bavaria is not considered a stronghold for the BSW. Following a contentious vote on migration policy, where the BSW partially aligned with the AfD and CDU, several prominent members have exited the party in Bavaria.
While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a focal point in the previous state elections, it seems to have taken a backseat in the current Bundestag campaign.
The BSW is now recalibrating its strategy for the upcoming election.
The Significance of the Five Percent Threshold
Parties trailing below five percent in polls face significant challenges, as a recent study from the universities of Potsdam and Vienna highlights—voters are reluctant to ‘waste’ their votes. The five percent threshold has direct ramifications for coalition formations in the Bundestag: If five parties gain entry, it only requires two factions to form a government, such as a grand coalition or a black-green alliance.
Should the FDP, Left, and BSW all secure seats in the next Bundestag, it would result in seven factions, necessitating the CDU and SPD to seek a third party for governance, potentially the FDP or the Greens.
For the FDP, Left, and BSW, this election is pivotal.
Join Markus Preiß for an in-depth discussion on the challenges faced by the FDP, Left, and BSW in the Report from Berlin. Tune in at 6 PM on ARD.
Discover the key points in the election programs, the stakes involved in this campaign, and the electoral process itself through analyses, reports, and insights on the upcoming Bundestag election in February 2025 at tagesschau.de.
This topic was highlighted in the tagesthemen on February 6, 2025, at 10:15 PM.