FDP and the coalition options: “Kingmaker” or “Dear-not-ruler”?

Before the federal election in around a week and a half, it is becoming apparent: Liberals and Greens are needed for a coalition. Who can you talk to? Above all, the FDP is under special observation.

The Greens and the FDP already have one thing in common: Both parties are currently in the most likely coalition variants. As there are: the traffic light, i.e. red-yellow-green – and Jamaica, i.e. black-yellow-green.

In any case, FDP leader Christian Lindner wallows in the role of the “inevitable”, the “kingmaker” – despite, or perhaps because of, the weakness of the desired coalition partner, the Union. “So the FDP has a special responsibility to organize a policy of the center,” said Lindner at the four-way fight in the ARD.

Another coalition rejection? Difficult for the FDP

But the FDP boss should not overestimate his strength, warns Albrecht von Lucke, editor of the “Blätter für German and international politics”, in tagesschau24 interview. Especially when the SPD, which is currently leading in the polls, really becomes the strongest force.

“If that is the case, and there is a considerable gap, then there is a lot to suggest that the first serious negotiations on the traffic light coalition will be made. And Christian Lindner will find it very difficult to cancel again after he had already four years ago the Jamaica coalition has rejected it, “says von Lucke.

Too great a contrast to the greens?

As an eternal “dear-not-ruler”, Lindner will hardly want to go down in history. On the other hand, the – presumably stronger – Greens hardly want to renegotiate all of their own election promises. “No tax increases” is the Liberal mantra. One wants to fight climate change with “technological progress”. Nobody knows how to do it with the Greens at the moment – regardless of whether you are embedded in the Jamaica or the traffic light frame.

Little chances for a GroKo re-edition

So a new GroKo after all? Or black-red-yellow or red-black-yellow? CDU candidate Armin Laschet was asked whether he would submit to an SPD-led government ARD asked when he triumphed with Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock. “The question was whether they would also join a Scholz government?” Attempted moderator Oliver Koehr. “But I did not answer you as you saw. We are not in the process of forming a government, we are in the process of promoting the right path for our country,” was Laschet’s evasive answer. Which, at least, did not rule out a junior partnership with the SPD.

The fact that the Social Democrats are doing a renewed coalition with the CDU / CSU does not speak for it at the moment.

Foreign policy as an exclusion criterion for the left?

And what about red-green-red? Sold as a horror scenario by the Union, not excluded by the SPD, this color combination is considered unlikely due to the Left Party’s foreign policy ideas. Even if the party recently campaigned noticeably offensively for this three-way alliance. “If there is a majority for the SPD, the Greens and the Left on September 26th, we should talk very seriously about how we can shape a policy change,” emphasized the left-wing top candidate Janine Wissler during the four-way battle in the ARD. At least as aggressively, she called for the transfer of NATO to a new alliance including Russia. For Greens like SPD an exclusion criterion.

From a strategic point of view, however, it makes sense from the Left Party’s point of view to advance the story that one could end up in a government because that presumably increases the chances of voting. And from the point of view of the SPD, if necessary to enter into an alliance with the Left Party, because that increases the pressure on the FDP in coalition negotiations.

After all, it is clear that no party wants to enter into an alliance with the AfD. What is mutual. Even if top candidate Alice Weidel had to think for a full three seconds – a small eternity at prime TV broadcasting time – before answering the question of whether she would choose a Chancellor Armin Laschet with a simple “no”.