Interest in the election in Germany was slightly higher this time, with a turnout of 64.0 percent, than in the 2019 election. At that time, it was 61.38 percent in Germany, well above the European average of 50.66 percent.
Union by far the strongest force
Weeks before the election, it was already clear that the CDU and CSU together would win by far the most votes. According to the first projections, they would together receive 30.1 percent (Election Research Group/ZDF) and 30.2 percent nationwide respectively. (Infratest Dimap/ARD). CDU leader Friedrich Merz has declared the nationwide vote to be a test for the federal election in September 2025. The result of the European election will provide information about where the CDU stands.
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In his initial reaction, Merz was extremely satisfied, speaking of a “great election campaign” and a “good day for the Union”. The Union could be seen as proof of the turnaround if it exceeded its result in the 2021 federal election of a meager 24.1 percent or that of the most recent European election. In 2019, it achieved 28.9 percent. Merz, however, has set “30 percent plus x” as a target. That was ambitious – but should work, regardless of whether the Union crosses the threshold at the end of the evening or not. In any case, it is likely to continue to go on the offensive: Merz speaks of a “last warning shot for the traffic light coalition”. There must be a change of course on the issues of migration and economic policy. General Secretary Carsten Linnemann is even calling on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to put the vote of confidence in the Bundestag.
The second question for the Union was whether its result was sufficient for the Christian Democratic European People’s Party (EPP) to EU Parliament will get enough seats to enable CDU politician Ursula von der Leyen to serve a second term as President of the EU Commission. At least the EPP will remain the strongest force for the foreseeable future, but will need partners from other groups in the European Parliament. The SPD, however, does not want to vote for von der Leyen if she relies on votes from right-wing extremist MPs, such as supporters of the Fratelli d’Italia of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
SPD with worst result
According to the first projections, the SPD will receive 14 percent. This would mean that it would even beat its historically worst election result of 2019. At that time, the leading candidate Katarina Barley, who ran again, received 15.8 percent – a loss of 11.5 percentage points. In the 2021 federal election, she achieved 25.7 percent and was the winner of the election with Olaf Scholz.
“It all depends on the Chancellor,” the Social Democrats put up posters during the election campaign. They highlighted Scholz’s prudence and his commitment to peace – even though the Chancellor stresses at every opportunity that Germany under his leadership is the second most important supporter of Ukraine after the USA, including in terms of arms deliveries. But the SPD also turned the European elections into a vote on the Chancellor and his policies. This has clearly failed – it is not for nothing that General Secretary Kevin Kühnert warns against looking for responsibility in one person. Above all, the SPD wanted to avoid ending up behind the AfD. Many in the party saw this as a red line – and it will break the party.
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This means that the SPD is likely to face a debate about the election campaign strategy, especially the future course of the traffic light coalition. Party leader Lars Klingbeil had already set the direction when he recently told the Reuters news agency: “What is not acceptable is simply cutting 30 or 40 billion from the federal budget.” This is also “a clear message” to FDP leader and finance minister Christian Lindner. Lindner has so far ruled out a suspension of the debt brake as well as higher taxes, referring to the coalition agreement. Until now, he knew that Scholz was on his side on this issue.
Now the pressure on the Chancellor from the party and the Bundestag faction is likely to grow. “Our people want to see us fight – also in the upcoming budget discussions,” Klingbeil confirmed in the evening. There could also be an increase in voices in the SPD who see Boris Pistorius as the better candidate for Chancellor than Scholz; the Defense Minister is by far the most popular politician in the federal cabinet.
Greens collapse, FDP probably also loses
The Greens have suffered the heaviest losses in the traffic light coalition. They have plummeted from 20.5 percent in 2019 to 11.9 percent – this is the figure determined by both ZDF and ARD. In the 2019 European elections, climate protection was still the most important issue according to surveys; despite the recent flood disasters, it has slipped to fourth place in terms of interest. Now the Greens must expect to significantly undercut their result of 14.6 percent in the 2021 federal election. At that time, however, they had already fallen well short of their own expectations after a botched election campaign.
The Greens also came in behind the SPD, but above all the AfD. With their slogan “Democrats before fascists, green before blue,” they declared the vote to be a question of whether it would be possible to “put the right-wing extremist forces in this country in their place.” Party leader Omid Nouripour spoke of a “simply dismaying result” with regard to the AfD. Nevertheless, the Greens wanted to play a role in the formation of the new EU Commission in order to find “a majority in Europe without right-wing extremists.”
Some in the party are questioning whether a candidacy for chancellor makes any sense at all given the situation. However, it is also pointed out that after the problems with the heating law introduced by Vice Chancellor and Economics Minister Robert Habeck, the poll ratings have stabilized – albeit at a level that is not suitable for a popular party.
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The FDP had not expected too much anyway: Anything above the 5.4 percent in the 2019 European elections was already considered a success by the party leadership. The projections now put the Liberals at five percent on ZDF and ARD – a respectable result, especially considering the coalition partners. With Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the Liberals had sent one of their best-known politicians into the race for seats in the Strasbourg Parliament, but she also polarizes with her unconditional support for Ukraine and her sharp rhetoric. The issue of reducing bureaucracy and the attacks on the current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have apparently had little traction. Strack-Zimmermann will move to Brussels one way or another – for the last time in Germany there will be no threshold clause in the European elections.
The Free Democrats have always struggled to mobilize their supporters in European elections. With the “Eurofighter”, as party leader Christian Lindner called Strack-Zimmermann when she was chosen as the top candidate, she managed to achieve a result in the final spurt that was better than the most recent polls. It remains to be seen whether that will be enough to build momentum for 2025, the year of the federal election. The party can hardly hope for great success in the state elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony in September. It will therefore be all the more important for Lindner to achieve noticeable success in the traffic light coalition in the economic turnaround he has called for and at the same time to be able to stick to his line on the budget – and this is where the dispute in the coalition is likely to become drastically worse.
AfD suffers from scandals, but grows
The AfD achieved its best result in European elections with 16.2 percent (ARD and ZDF). In 2019 it achieved 11.0 percent. Since the beginning of the year, it has barely escaped from a series of allegations and scandals, most recently affecting the leading candidate Maximilian Krah as well as Petr Bystron, who was second on the list. They are suspected of collaborating with Russia and China and of having accepted money for this. The public prosecutor’s office is investigating, both deny the allegations.
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The party leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla considered the projections a clear success, also with a view to the state elections in the autumn. In the east, it became the strongest force. The previous record result in the 2017 federal election was 12.6 percent. However, before the recent scandals, the AfD had been well above the 20 percent mark in surveys; the research group Wahlen found 22 percent in January. Its most recent survey put it at around 14 percent – the AfD is now clearly surpassing that figure.
Wagenknecht passes first test, left marginalized
Wagenknecht, on the other hand, is successful in the first nationwide poll. In the ZDF forecast, she is at 5.9 percent, while in the ARD, the BSW is at 5.8 percent. According to initial analyses, the increases are mainly at the expense of the Left and the SPD. And according to current polls, Wagenknecht can expect significantly higher, double-digit vote shares in the state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in the autumn.
The pre-election survey that Infratest Dimap conducted for ARD last week shows two main reasons for voting for the BSW: the promotion of talks and negotiations with Russia – and Sahra Wagenknecht as a person herself. This is not a positive signal for the Left. It points to a further upheaval in the German party system, in which she could be marginalized.
The young party Volt is doing surprisingly well: on ZDF it is at 2.6 percent, while ARD sees it at 2.5 percent. Five years ago, the party, founded in 2017, achieved 0.7 percent, and its only MEP had joined the Green Party. According to ARD, Martin Sonneborn’s satirical party “Die Partei” is at 1.9 percent (ZDF: 1.8 percent), while the Free Voters are at 2.7 percent (ZDF: 2.4 percent).