European leaders are set to meet in Budapest amid significant challenges, including Donald Trump’s anticipated return to power. The summit will focus on military support for Ukraine, with tensions rising as key leaders like Macron and Scholz navigate domestic and international pressures. Host Prime Minister Orban aims to leverage Trump’s victory to further his agenda, raising concerns about the implications of their alliance on European unity and support for Ukraine amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Unity in Budapest: European Leaders Gather Amidst Challenges
Following the recent US elections, heads of state and government from across Europe are set to convene in Budapest, eager to showcase a united front. However, significant distractions loom over two leading nations, while host Prime Minister Viktor Orban has his own ambitions for the summit.
While an agenda was prepared, it appears that the predominant focus will be on Donald Trump’s anticipated return to power. Diplomats suggest that European leaders must first grapple with this development. Yet, there is an opportunity for Budapest to emerge as a venue for decisive action, with nearly 50 heads of state and government assembling for the European Political Community (EPC) summit just two days after Trump’s electoral success. This could serve as a pivotal moment for Europe to assert its cohesion.
Challenges Ahead for European Leaders
The summit will unfold under challenging circumstances. French President Emmanuel Macron arrives with diminished domestic influence, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces turmoil after his coalition crumbled mere hours before the meeting. A central issue expected to arise is the future of military support for Ukraine, particularly in light of ongoing disputes involving the recently dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
Anticipation surrounds the presence of 47 European heads of state, including representatives from the 27 EU member nations, as well as the UK, Switzerland, Ukraine, various Balkan states, and countries like Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
As the host, Orban is likely to capitalize on Trump’s victory. Traditionally, hosts maintain a low profile at such summits, but Orban is poised to use this opportunity to advance his agenda. A long-standing Trump supporter, he exuberantly hailed the former president’s victory as “perhaps the greatest political comeback in the political history of the West,” framing it as a beacon of hope for peace. Orban has positioned himself against what he perceives as “pro-war forces,” which ironically includes those supporting Ukraine’s defense.
European diplomats are increasingly wary of the implications of the Orban-Trump alliance, fearing it may undermine the collective effort against Vladimir Putin’s aggression. With Republicans in the US successfully stalling arms deliveries to Ukraine, and Orban questioning Europe’s capacity to independently sustain military and financial support, the stakes are high.
The reality is that the US has been the primary source of military assistance to Ukraine, contributing significantly under President Biden. Without this support, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Ukraine’s sovereignty could be at risk. The looming question remains: what happens if Trump drastically cuts or halts this aid?
In the aftermath of Trump’s previous election, Europe experienced profound shock; however, the current climate appears different. Following Trump’s recent victory, Scholz and Macron quickly coordinated their responses, emphasizing the importance of transatlantic cooperation while asserting the need for mutual respect concerning European interests. This includes a warning regarding potential new tariffs, with the EU prepared to respond robustly should such measures be introduced by Trump.
Macron, the architect of the European Political Community, initiated this new political framework soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling for a unified response among European nations. Over two years later, the focus remains on reinforcing resilience against Russia, while simultaneously addressing the challenges posed by a shifting relationship with Washington in the wake of Trump’s electoral success.