The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warns that the impact of the war in Ukraine will be felt more and more harshly on the economies of its zone, largely centered on Eastern Europe. In a report published on Wednesday, the institution thus lowers its growth forecast in 2023 in its regions to 3%, against 4.7% anticipated in May.
This revision “reflects a reduced supply of gas from Russia (…) and inflationary pressures in the world as in the regions of the EBRD”, notes the latter. Gas prices in Europe “reach on average 2.5 times their 2021 level” in inflation-adjusted terms, notes the EBRD, which argues that its forecast could be further “sharply lowered if hostilities worsen or if Russia’s gas exports are reduced even further.