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Estonia’s secret service: Russia is preparing for confrontation

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Report from Tallinn
More soldiers on the Baltic border: Estonia’s secret service warns of confrontation between Russia and the West

Russian soldiers march past the Kremlin

© Komsomolskaya Pravda / Imago Images

Is the situation between Russia and NATO getting worse? At least that’s what the Russian military reform suggests, according to a report by the Estonian secret service. For Estonia there can only be one answer.

According to Estonian intelligence, Russia is preparing militarily for a prolonged confrontation with the West. This is what the Russian military reform indicates, according to the annual report of the foreign intelligence service of the Baltic EU and NATO country presented in Tallinn on Tuesday. The reform reflects the ideas of the Russian leadership regarding the resources required for the war of aggression in Ukraine and a confrontation with the West.

“We can assume that within the next decade NATO will be confronted with a mass Soviet-style army that, although technologically inferior to the Allies, poses a significant threat due to its size, firepower and reserves,” writes intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin in the report. In order to defend themselves against a possible conventional attack by such an army, the armies and defense industries of the NATO allies would have to be significantly better prepared and equipped than is currently the case.

Russia will rebuild its military by 2026

According to the report, for Estonia the military reform means a significant increase in Russian armed forces near the border of the Baltic state in the coming years. Russia is also planning to station more troops on the border with Finland and the other Baltic states. It is said that Russia’s goal is to achieve military dominance in the Baltic Sea region. According to Rosin, the likelihood of a direct attack on Estonia this year is low.

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a restructuring of the Russian army at the end of 2022 in order to implement the increase in troop numbers demanded by the Kremlin. The combat power of the fleet, air force and missile forces should also be strengthened. The renewal of the structures should therefore be completed between 2023 and 2026.