Epiphany meeting in Stuttgart: how many traffic lights can the FDP afford?

Status: 06.01.2023 06:32

The traffic light coalition is only partially good for the FDP. For party leader Lindner, the Epiphany meeting is also about getting his FDP back on the road to success. There is no exit option.

By Hans-Joachim Vieweger, ARD Capital Studio

So far, the FDP has not benefited from government participation in Berlin – on the contrary. After the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein, the party was kicked out of the governments in Düsseldorf and Kiel, and in Lower Saxony the party even missed re-entering parliament. According to polls, this fate could also threaten the party in the elections in Bremen (in May) and Bavaria (in October). All the same, the polls for the elections in Berlin (in February) and in Hesse (in autumn) look a little better.

Since the election debacle in Lower Saxony, a word has been making the rounds within the FDP: one top liberal after the other has stated that their own supporters are “strangers” with the traffic light. Before the meeting in Stuttgart, the head of the FDP parliamentary group in Baden-Württemberg, Hans-Ulrich Rülke, said: “I feared from the start that it wouldn’t be easy and that it wouldn’t be easy to convey to our voters.” That’s how it happened.

To the ARD Germany trend according to the FDP supporters, the number of those who are less or not at all satisfied with the federal government (56 percent) clearly outweighs the number of those who are satisfied or very satisfied (44 percent).

How much pragmatism is allowed?

The answer of the FDP: The profile of the party within the coalition should be sharpened, if necessary also in conflict with the partners SPD and Greens. A year ago, the Union spoke of a “left-yellow” government, which is now also being said by FDP politicians such as General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai: The FDP, in a coalition with two left-wing partners, must prevent “left-wing projects will be implemented in this coalition”. One is not a wish-you-what-partner of the SPD and the Greens.

The financial policy, characterized by billions in new debt for energy price brakes, the German armed forces and climate investments, is viewed critically by many supporters of the FDP: Is this still the party that vehemently advocated compliance with the debt brake? To put it another way: How much pragmatism can there be in the government, where does the renunciation of fundamentally liberal positions begin?

More differentiation from the partners

The FDP wants to present itself all the more as a business party again. A “political growth package” is now necessary, says party leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner before the Epiphany meeting. What is needed now is a “changing era in financial and economic policy”. Because: the competitiveness of the German economy is declining, said Lindner in an interview with the “Stuttgarter Zeitung”.

The demarcation from the coalition partners is also part of the program: With regard to planning and approval procedures, the “ambition level of the traffic light” is not enough for him, according to the FDP chairman in the SWR interview. Faster procedures – when it comes to this issue, Lindner and his FDP colleagues in the cabinet are not just about promoting renewable energies.

Transport Minister Volker Wissing, for example, is also arguing vehemently for the faster expansion of roads: It cannot be about “climate protection against the interests of society”, rather the “interests in mobility and production” must be reconciled with climate protection.

What is real conflict, what is just rhetoric?

Wissing accepts conflicts with the traffic light partners, especially with the Greens – this can also serve to sharpen the profile, as can the demand that nuclear power plants run longer. And fracking is not taboo for the FDP either. Or is it rhetoric for one’s own supporters – knowing that this cannot be enforced with the partners in government anyway?

It is a balancing act that the FDP dares to do. Because conflicts within the traffic light coalition can also have a negative impact on the liberals. Johannes Vogel, the parliamentary director of the FDP parliamentary group, emphasized after the lost Lower Saxony elections that the FDP had to “make it clear that we are not against things, but above all a pro-party.”

Lindner remains undisputed – despite everything

However, there is no major internal party debate about the FDP’s course. Despite weakening poll numbers, party leader Christian Lindner, who has led the FDP for almost ten years, is undisputed. Although he has not yet definitely declared that he will stand again in the next election for the party executive committee in April, there is now an opportunity in Stuttgart to do so.

The fact that there is no simmering within the party despite the uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming state elections is cited by leading representatives of the FDP as a decisive difference to the last government participation between 2009 and 2013. After the four years, the FDP was kicked out of the Bundestag, leaving many in the party traumatized. Internal squabbles broke out at the time, and party leader Guido Westerwelle was replaced in the middle of the legislature by the hapless Philipp Rösler.

FDP cannot rely on Union alone

In addition: Despite all the concerns that one’s own profile will be damaged within the traffic light – it is important for the FDP to have a power option with the traffic light. The fact that you cannot automatically count on the CDU as a partner has been shown in Schleswig-Holstein: Prime Minister Daniel Günther could have mathematically formed a coalition with the FDP after the state elections last year, but he opted for an alliance with the greens.

From the point of view of the liberals, relying solely on the Union as a partner would be a mistake – especially since there will hardly be enough for black and yellow in the federal government in the near future.

The FDP before the Epiphany meeting – and exciting elections in 2023

Hans-Joachim Vieweger, ARD Berlin, 6.1.2023 06:41 a.m

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