Energy supply: These nuclear power plant scenarios are conceivable

Just a few months ago it seemed unthinkable: now a majority is in favor of longer lifetimes for nuclear power plants. The politicians disagree. What scenarios are conceivable – and how likely are they?

With concerns about an acute energy crisis in winter, the question of longer maturities has returned to the agenda. A longer term could “make sense”, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) said a few days ago. The public mood has also turned: According to the most recent ARD Germany trend More than 80 percent of Germans are in favor of longer use of nuclear power plants. Some only advocate use in the coming year, while others even advocate longer-term use. Three scenarios for a longer term are conceivable.

Scenario one: “Stretching operation” until summer 2023

It would be a short term extension. In this scenario, the three power plants that are still active only consume the existing fuel rods. In order to get through the winter better, when the sun and wind don’t supply as much electricity, operation could now be throttled in the summer and electricity generation “stretched” as a result. For this, the Atomic Energy Act would have to be changed and safety and liability issues would have to be clarified. However, the operators of Isar 2 in Bavaria and Neckarwestheim 2 in Baden-Württemberg have basically stated that they are ready for continued operation.

One thing is clear: If a “drawing operation” is to make sense, the decision must be made as soon as possible. One reason could be the result of a current stress test for the electricity sector in Germany: The Federal Ministry of Economics has asked those responsible for the large electricity grids to examine the risks for the electricity supply under particularly difficult conditions. The result should be available in August. If the test indicates greater risks, the political resistance to stretching operations, at least for Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim 2, should not be too great.

Estimate of probability for this scenario: 80 to 90 percent.

Scenario two: A term extension of two to three years

Both the Union parties and the FDP are committed to extending the service life of the nuclear power plants beyond pure stretch operation. During his visit to the Isar 2 nuclear power plant, the CSU chairman and Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) campaigned for an extension until at least mid-2024. But not only the Atomic Energy Act has to be changed as in Scenario 1; rather, the reactors would have to be comprehensively checked beyond the ongoing safety checks.

For example, the Atomic Energy Act requires a so-called periodic safety review every ten years. Actually, this would have been due in 2019; because of the pending phase-out of nuclear power, however, this was not done. If these major safety checks are to be carried out, temporary outages of the power plants would have to be planned for. In addition, new fuel rods for the reactors would have to be procured as soon as possible.

If politicians decide to extend the service life in the medium term, the Brokdorf, Grohnde and Gundremmingen C reactors, which were shut down at the end of 2021, could also come back into play. According to Joachim Bühler, the managing director of the TÜV association, it would be technically possible to restart these reactors. However, the legal and above all political hurdles are significantly higher than with a pure stretching operation until the summer of 2023.

Estimate of the probability of nuclear power being used in the medium term: 30 to 40 percent.

Scenario three: The exit from the exit

With the exception of the AfD, none of the parties represented in the Bundestag are in favor of the permanent use of nuclear energy. In some discussions, however, the question of where the electricity should come from in the coming years when the German economy is increasingly switched to electricity as part of the energy transition is raised. The FDP chairman and Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner pointed out that not only in the next few months but also in the coming years more electricity will be used for heating: “So we have to maintain and expand all capacities for energy generation,” said Lindner.

Even if the FDP leader has made it clear that he is not advocating a nuclear phase-out, nuclear energy is celebrating a renaissance in other countries. And the EU Commission in Brussels has asked the member states to review the exit decisions in view of the current emergency.

So, if other countries save gas out of solidarity with Germany, Germany should be expected to show solidarity in electricity matters in return. France, for example, is currently dependent on electricity from Germany because the French nuclear power plants are only operational to a limited extent due to the necessary safety checks and maintenance. This shows that even if new reactors are currently unthinkable in Germany, the debate about longer lifetimes for nuclear power plants could continue beyond the current gas crisis.

Assessment of the probability of exiting the exit: maximum ten percent.