Emmanuel Macron will speak this Wednesday, but is he still audible?

“Jupiter” descends from Olympus. Emmanuel Macron will address the French this Wednesday at 1 p.m. during a live interview with the television news of TF1 and France 2. Discreet on the pension reform, the Head of State is eagerly awaited on the political blockage and the social tensions that agitate the country. But in this explosive context, and on the eve of a tenth day of mobilization against the bill, is the President of the Republic still audible?

“It is difficult for Macron to reinvent himself”

The tenant of the Elysée wants to regain control after the rejection in extremis of motions of censure against the government of Elisabeth Borne in the Assembly on Monday. The president consulted in all directions on Tuesday to try to reunite his camp and find a way out of the blockage. But the entourage of the Head of State has already cut short the rumors about a possible big bang to come. “No dissolution, no reshuffle, no referendum,” summarized AFP a participant in this meeting at the Elysée with the tenors of the government and the leaders of the majority.

“Emmanuel Macron is a bit stuck between two positions: leaving Borne ahead and using him as a fuse if things go wrong, or showing that he is regaining control in the sequence”, judges Luc Rouban, director of research at the CNRS. “Faced with the current tense situation, it is difficult to resuscitate a surge of confidence and to reinvent oneself, as it had been able to do with the post-Covid “Whatever it costs” or with the great debate during the “ yellow vests”, adds the CEVIPOF researcher. The Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune, sketched Tuesday on France Inter the opening of a “new chapter”, with “initiatives” in social matters, citing possible “measures” on working conditions and remuneration.

“It is he who crystallizes anger”

But will these announcements be enough to “appease” the country, while Emmanuel Macron is particularly targeted by opponents of the text? Two weeks ago, in the heart of the protest and even before the use of the decried 49.3, a Renaissance parliamentarian was worried about an Elysian speech. “Speaking, Emmanuel Macron would only tense people up even more. He must keep his word…”, feared this close friend of the Head of State. The exercise is all the more perilous as Emmanuel Macron’s popularity rating is at its lowest, at only 28% favorable opinion in March (70% dissatisfied), according to Ifop’s monthly barometer.

“He lost four points and fell below 30% for the first time since 2019, at the end of the “yellow vests” crisis. It’s a real turning point”, notes Frédéric Dabi, General Manager Opinion of the institute. “Since the beginning of the disputes, it is he, much more than Elisabeth Borne or Olivier Dussopt, who crystallizes the anger”, adds the pollster. In total, the president’s popularity has fallen by 13 points, still according to Ifop, since his re-election in May 2022. “There is a personalization against him, in particular from the left-wing electorate who voted for him against Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, and does not feel that his voices have been heard at the start of his mandate, ”continues Luc Rouban.

Under these conditions, the equation looks all the more delicate as social dialogue remains broken and doubt has plagued its own majority. “Even unpopular, the president is the keystone of the Fifth Republic. It therefore remains audible, even if it seems to have lost its ability to turn public opinion”, nuance Frédéric Dabi. An event could also thwart the strategy of “appeasement” envisaged by the Elysée. Emmanuel Macron will invite the King of England Charles III to Versailles next Monday for a state dinner. In the midst of a social crisis, the symbol will not fail to be castigated by the opposition to the bill.

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