This piece explores the evolving migration narratives and political behaviors of Latino Americans, particularly third-generation individuals. It highlights a shift in voting patterns, with economic concerns superseding ethnic identity. The article discusses how demographic changes, particularly among U.S.-born Latinos, influence their political affiliations, leading many to lean Republican despite historical biases. It also addresses misconceptions regarding cultural conservatism and the gender gap within Latino voter demographics, emphasizing the complexities of their political landscape.
Understanding the Migration Story of Latino Americans
Mr. Madrid, as a Latino, can you share your migration narrative?
I currently reside in California, where my grandparents made their journey from northern Mexico. I identify as part of the rapidly expanding voter demographic—specifically, the third generation of Mexican Americans.
Shifting Trends among Latino Voters
Recent post-election analyses reveal that Trump garnered 43 percent of the Latino vote, reflecting a 5-point increase from four years prior and a 15-point rise from eight years ago. What accounts for this shift?
The Latino electorate is experiencing significant transformations in two main aspects. Firstly, their ethnic background and skin color are becoming less influential in their voting behavior. Instead, economic factors and personal finances are taking precedence. This shift is largely attributed to the increasing number of third-generation individuals, or U.S.-born Hispanics, who are less connected to their ancestral countries and lack personal immigration experiences.
What is the second factor contributing to this change?
The political landscape among Latino voters has shifted dramatically, particularly within the working class. Since Latinos represent the fastest-growing segment in this category, especially among those without a college degree, it is unsurprising that they are leaning towards the Republican Party.
While the Biden-Harris administration has been supportive of unions, which Biden often cites as the backbone of the American middle class, this message has not resonated with Latino voters. The unionized workforce is minimal and shrinking, and Latinos are among the least organized ethnic groups. They prioritize immediate economic concerns, such as rising prices for essentials like eggs and gasoline, over union affiliation. Many feel financially more secure under Trump’s presidency, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration’s challenges, including skyrocketing interest rates and inflation that diminished purchasing power.
During his campaign, Trump made incendiary comments about immigrants. How did he manage to attract so many Latino voters despite his xenophobic rhetoric?
The answer lies in demographics. In my extensive research, including my book “The Latino Century,” I found that a demographic shift explains this phenomenon. During my involvement in George W. Bush’s campaigns in 2000 and 2004, many Latino voters were relatively new immigrants. However, today, a staggering 80 percent of Latino voters are U.S.-born, with nearly 40 percent under the age of 30. This younger generation does not view themselves solely through an ethnic lens; they tend to align politically with their peers in various workplaces. They often disregard Trump’s more radical statements, believing he doesn’t genuinely mean them.
Bush secured 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004. Why did Republicans see a decline in this support by 2008, despite ongoing demographic changes?
The events of September 11, 2001, altered the national and political landscape. The Republican Party adopted a more isolationist and protectionist stance, particularly regarding immigration. Since then, no conservative candidates have actively welcomed migration, and the pace of Latino naturalizations peaked under Obama. By the time Trump was elected in 2016, U.S.-born Latinos had begun to outnumber newly naturalized citizens.
So, do Latino voters increasingly mirror the behavior of white voters?
That’s largely my conclusion, with some distinctions. Unlike earlier immigrant groups from Europe, Latinos share a closer geographical and cultural connection with their countries of origin. The U.S.-Mexico border exemplifies a unique economic and social relationship that European immigrants did not experience. Many Latinos frequently return to their homeland, maintaining close ties through modern technology and media. The ongoing immigration from Latin America has been consistent for decades, contributing to a demographic shift where the U.S. may become predominantly non-white in the next 15 years. As Latinos assimilate, the cultural landscape of America is also evolving to incorporate more Latino influences, as seen in the popularity of Mexican cuisine.
You emphasize education and income as key factors. Do culture and religion not also play a significant role? Are Latinos not inherently more conservative, Catholic, and family-oriented?
We must tread cautiously here. The demographic group most aligned with Trump and Republican ideals is primarily third-generation Latinos, who exhibit the least ethnic attachment. If Latinos were inherently conservative, one would expect first-generation voters to lean more towards Trump. However, it is the third generation that shows this political shift after significant Americanization. In 1980, 80 percent of Latinos identified as Catholic, but that number has since dropped to 43 percent, with a growing number identifying as evangelical Christians. Yet, for every Latino converting to evangelicalism, two are leaving organized religion altogether—reflecting deeper assimilation into mainstream culture.
Almost half of Latino men reportedly voted for Trump according to exit polls. Some attribute this to a macho culture among Latinos. What’s your take?
The gender gap among Latinos is notable but largely correlates with educational disparities, with more Latino women pursuing higher education than their male counterparts. The notion of macho culture is a stereotype lacking substantial evidence. Latinos voted in large numbers for Hillary Clinton, and we have recently elected a female president in Mexico. More Hispanic women than men occupy seats in state legislatures. Prejudiced notions, like the belief that Latin Americans are drawn to autocrats, persist despite their hard-working nature, as evidenced by the demand for Latino workers to fill jobs that others avoid.
Many Latinos originate from nations that have faced dictatorships and corruption. Isn’t it perplexing that they support someone who often mimics an autocratic style?
As mentioned, most Latinos in the U.S. are part of the third generation and lack personal experiences with dictatorship. Their perspective is shaped by a different context than those whose families fled oppressive regimes.