Consumers will benefit from a 15% reduction in regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRV) starting February 1, surpassing the previously announced 14%. This decrease follows a drop in wholesale electricity prices. While some taxes will rise, the overall impact will lead to noticeable savings on household bills. EDF’s customers will see adjustments in their monthly payments, and those with market price contracts are advised to compare offers, as competitive options remain available despite tax increases. Changes to billing structures for peak and off-peak hours are also anticipated.
Significant Reduction in Regulated Electricity Sales Tariffs
In an unexpected turn of events, consumers will be pleased to hear that the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has revealed an even higher decrease in the regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRV) effective February 1. The reduction will now be 15%, surpassing the previously announced 14% by the Barnier government at the end of last year.
This adjustment stems from a recalculation based on declining electricity prices in the wholesale markets. With prices continuing to fall in December, the final calculation reflects this trend. Emmanuelle Wargon, president of the CRE, highlighted that “this is the first time in at least ten years that TRV has decreased.” This marks a significant shift following three years of price hikes amid the energy crisis. Specifically, the average cost per megawatt-hour (MWh) for households on a TRV contract will be set at 239 euros come February 1. This is a stark contrast to the pre-crisis rate of 200 euros and the peak of 281 euros following a series of increases in 2022, 2023, and 2024, which Wargon aptly described as “an unprecedented surge,” especially as the CRE celebrates its 25th anniversary this year.
Understanding the Price Dynamics
The notable decrease is primarily due to a substantial drop in wholesale market prices, even as taxes and tariffs for using public electricity networks (Turpe) are on the rise. The excise tax will increase by 15 euros per MWh, signaling the end of the tariff shield implemented during the crisis, while the Turpe will rise by 6 euros per MWh. Conversely, the electricity price itself is poised to drop by 63 euros. Collectively, this combination allows TRV contract subscribers to experience an average decrease of 42 euros per MWh in their electricity expenses.
For instance, a household with a peak-off-peak subscription that spent 1,863 euros in 2024 will see a reduction of 389 euros in 2025. Meanwhile, a household with an annual bill of 756 euros will enjoy a decrease of 107 euros, while those with bills around 3,600 euros last year can expect to save 651 euros. These reductions will be reflected in March bills for bi-monthly subscribers and in the schedules for those who opted for monthly billing.
EDF has clarified that for its 13 million TRV monthly customers, two scenarios are possible. Customers nearing the end of their billing cycle may continue as normal, with adjustments made between April and June 2025 to reflect the price changes. For the remaining 10 million customers, monthly payments will see an approximate reduction of 12% starting mid-March. This cautious approach aims to prevent customers from facing large regularization bills should their consumption increase, according to Lionel Zecri, director of the residential customer market at EDF.
As for the 10 million households with market price contracts, their situation will vary based on their suppliers’ commercial offers. Emmanuelle Wargon encourages consumers to compare various offers, noting that some market options have been as much as 25% to 30% lower than TRV. Although tax increases may narrow this gap, it is expected to remain at around 10% for the most competitive options. Suppliers like Ohm Énergie have already stated they will not pass on the tax increase to most subscribers, while Octopus Energy is evaluating how best to support its customers.
The CRE will closely monitor “particularly low” market offers as consumers weigh their options between the annually changing TRV and alternative contracts that lock in fixed prices for two to three years. While the future of TRV in 2026 remains uncertain, Emmanuelle Wargon does not anticipate major upheavals, although this year will usher in a new electricity market with the end of access to historically regulated nuclear electricity (Arenh) priced at 42 euros per MWh.
Consumers should also prepare for the potential discontinuation of certain base rate contracts and changes to billing for peak and off-peak hours (HP/HC). Wargon noted that the appeal of these contracts has declined, as at least 50% or 60% of consumption must occur during off-peak hours for them to be beneficial. The goal is to lower this threshold to 30%. The CRE and Enedis are finalizing details expected to be revealed in early February, aiming to encourage users to adjust their consumption patterns according to electricity production fluctuations, with genuinely beneficial off-peak rates. Moreover, the CRE proposes to eliminate base rates for very large consumers, specifically those with meters rated between 18 and 36 kilovolt-amperes (kVA). These 50,000 subscribers will automatically be transitioned to HP/HC rates, while base contracts for 9 kVA to 15 kVA will no longer be marketed, allowing only existing customers to retain them.