Election results of the traffic light parties: “The outlook for the traffic light coalition is not positive”


interview

Status: 02.09.2024 13:39

The SPD, Greens and FDP suffered heavy defeats in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony. Political scientist Faas explains what this means for Chancellor Scholz and why the traffic light coalition is in a dilemma.

tagesschau24: The election results in Saxony and Thuringia are not surprising. What do they say about the electorate?

Torsten Faas: In fact, nothing dramatic has changed in the final stretch. But if you broaden the perspective a little, if we include the 2024 European elections, but also the 2021 federal elections, you will notice that a lot of movement is possible, especially in eastern Germany.

In the 2021 federal election, the SPD did very well, including in Thuringia and Saxony, for example. It is now miles away from that. There is no moment of inertia, there is no buffer that can cushion dissatisfaction. As a result, dissatisfaction breaks through very quickly and finds its way, for example, to the AfD or the BSW, certainly the two winners of yesterday’s election day.

Thorsten Faas

To person

Thorsten Faas is Professor of Political Science with a focus on “Political Sociology of the Federal Republic of Germany” at the Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science at the Free University of Berlin.

Difficult alliances

tagesschau24: What does this mean for governing in Thuringia and Saxony? Government coalitions are being considered that were previously unimaginable.

Faas: When we heard yesterday that the black-green-red alliance in Saxony, which was considered unusual at the time, was voted out, it is surprising how easily people now say: “Well, fine, then we’ll form an alliance of the CDU, BSW and SPD.” Because of course that doesn’t have any history to fall back on. The BSW has very few members. One wonders how ministries and all these positions are supposed to be filled from within the party.

I think we have to get used to the fact that we will see such complex, difficult alliances more and more often – and also that they will not function smoothly. That is not necessarily a political failure, but rather a difficult attempt to bring together things that we, the voters, have created in this way.

I think we are all going through a learning process. But it will certainly not be easy in Saxony and especially in Thuringia.

“Politically, the firewall is in place”

tagesschau24: None of the other parties want to govern together with the AfD. Will this firewall remain in place or does it need to be discussed again?

Faas: I think we have to differentiate between the parties and especially the party leadership. I didn’t hear anything yesterday that suggested openness towards the AfD. That is quite surprising, but also a good signal.

Because we must not forget: in Saxony, a coalition of the CDU and AfD would mathematically have a very clear majority. And we have already heard voices saying that this might also be an option – instead of the difficult alliances with the SPD and the Greens or the SPD and the BSW. But we have not heard that now. In that respect, the firewall is in place.

I actually find the picture more difficult when we talk about local societies. When we look at the AfD’s share of the vote, which is 30, in some parts 40 percent, and in certain groups closer to 50 percent, then I cannot simply put these broad sections of society behind a firewall.

You have to deal with it on a small scale – at work, in other contexts, in the family. And I think that this image sometimes generates reactions of frustration or a certain rebelliousness. Politically, the wall is there, but socially, you still have to find ways to deal with it.

“It certainly won’t be a euphoria alliance”

tagesschau24: In both Thuringia and Saxony, the parties of the traffic light coalition are doing poorly. Is the traffic light government shaky?

Faas: We have already heard today from the second row of the traffic light factions that things cannot continue like this, even from the SPD leader. The dilemma of the traffic light parties is that – we still have a year until the federal election – they actually have to strengthen the party profile of each party. That would lead to even more conflict in the traffic light coalition.

But at the same time you have to show that you can find compromises, that you can continue to function as an alliance and that it works. And that is actually getting more difficult every day.

As things stand today, however, it must also be said that none of the three parties has any interest in entering a federal election campaign with these results. So this alliance will continue for the time being – but it will certainly not be a euphoric alliance.

“A positive impact” at BSW

dailynews24: How vulnerable is Olaf Scholz, also with a view to the next federal election as a candidate for chancellor?

Faas: If you look at Thuringia and Saxony in the 2021 federal election, the SPD did very well there, I think, mainly thanks to Olaf Scholz’s image. That has now been reversed.

We see other parties like the BSW, where people have a positive impact. Where people put their trust in these people, specifically in Sahra Wagenknecht.

I think that is the really big challenge for the Chancellor and the party, but also the exciting question: will it be possible to associate something positive with him as a person so that trust can be restored? There is still a bit of time for that. But there is still a long way to go.

“People have lost trust”

tagesschau24: What consequences should the traffic light parties now draw?

Faas: That is difficult and we should not pretend that it can be done in the short term. Trust has simply been lost. We have an interesting situation in which the traffic lights, often on very difficult paths, have always found their way back to one another in the end.

We recently saw this so-called security package, where decisions were made in the difficult area of ​​immigration and security for the traffic light coalition, which hurt the parties because of their programs and their history. It was successful, but somehow it is not getting through because people have lost trust in this alliance.

This will not change in the short term. The question is whether voters will take a moment to reflect and think about what they really want in an election campaign situation in which the alternatives are becoming clearer. I think that is the hope that the Chancellor’s party in particular has: that the personnel tightening can perhaps create a certain momentum once again.

“Voter behavior anything but stable”

tagesschau24: But how can that work if people are currently punishing the traffic light government?

Faas: There’s no question that it’s difficult. The old adage applies: trust can be lost very quickly, but it’s very difficult to rebuild. But if we take a longer perspective, we see that voter behavior is anything but stable, and that we’re seeing serious changes in a very short space of time.

People forget how late the SPD became the leading force in 2021. Back then, it succeeded with an election campaign with “respect”, with a candidate for chancellor, Scholz, who also embodied that. Such a narrative should succeed again.

But that is of course much more difficult in a situation in which the government is being massively criticized by the CDU opposition, but also by completely different opposition forces such as the BSW and AfD – partly for good reasons. The outlook for the traffic light coalition is not positive and, of course, even less so after yesterday.

The interview was conducted by Kirsten Gerhard for tagesschau24. It was shortened and edited for the written form.

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