Election campaign of the Greens: “Then suddenly the Schulz train appears”

The Greens fear the Schulz train in their heads and fight for their challenger status. The race is far from over for Laschet – and what is Scholz actually doing? An interview.

tagesschau.de: A few weeks ago it still seemed as if the Greens were already in the Chancellery and the union with Armin Laschet had no chance. Now it’s the other way around. In doing so, the Union did nothing, except finally to present an expected – almost boring – election program. Is the race over?

Thorsten Faas: No, certainly not. We are just seeing a lot of movement in this election year. Nobody should therefore be written off or seen at the destination. Rather, it becomes clear to what extent internal conflicts and their extensive media representation affect the perception of the candidate. Laschet’s argument with Markus Söder was very difficult. And conversely, we see with Annalena Baerbock that the mood has turned after her meteoric rise in view of the allegations. Such disputes have very quick and very drastic consequences.

tagesschau.de: How can that be after 16 years of Merkel? Where is the spirit of optimism, the longing for something new – as it was after 16 years of Kohl? Why is there no mood of change?

Faas: The contrast to 1998 is really remarkable, after all, the duration of the reigns of Kohl and Merkel is identical. Even after 16 years Merkel she remains the most popular politician. But that also has a lot to do with Corona, because in the time before the pandemic there was a lot of dissatisfaction, everything was so tough, so sedate, the approval ratings for the Chancellor and the government were bad. The pandemic gave Merkel a lot of visibility again and possibly also created a certain need for security – even if everything did not go well in the pandemic. But in the pandemic in particular, many things, especially critical issues, are very timely – and accordingly quickly over.

“A dangerous situation”

tagesschau.de: That is probably what the Greens would like to see right now. How dangerous are the mistakes and allegations of the past few weeks against the Greens and their candidate Baerbock?

Faas: This is a dangerous situation for the Greens. This can also be seen in the party’s massive backlash to the latest allegations of plagiarism, keyword “character assassination”. I think the Greens are also concerned that an erosion process is setting in within the party. That the Greens suddenly no longer believe in the campaign, in the candidate – and that becomes really dangerous. Then suddenly the Schulz train appears in the mind – and the end is known.

tagesschau.de: The “Baerbock Railway” …

Faas: A negative spiral is developing for various reasons: There is, for example, the striking contrast between the extremely professional choreography of the Baerbock freestyle and the mistakes that are happening now. Then Baerbock’s candidacy was accompanied from the start by doubts as to whether it could really do it. At least they are not getting any smaller, you can see that in their polls. And once such a focus is set that there are inaccuracies and sloppiness at Baerbock, the follow-up research leads to it. This momentum is very difficult to break.

tagesschau.de: But Laschet was initially accompanied by doubts, after the dispute with Söder he did not look like a beaming winner in the chancellor candidate duel …

Faas: But Laschet did it very skillfully. At least in public he “crushed Söder with love” – ​​despite all the humiliation and shame. Laschet raved about the good cooperation with Söder, about the joint decision. That is a level of perseverance and stamina that was impressive given the severity of the conflict.

tagesschau.de: How do the Greens get off the track of the Schulz train again?

Faas: The image is becoming independent and thus generating the corresponding expectations – that is a communicative-strategic problem for the Greens. The Schulz case can only be compared to Baerbock’s situation to a limited extent, at least in terms of content. It has actually not caused any massive skyrocketing – the Greens were already on par with the Union two years ago and are still stable at a very good 20 percent. In terms of content, Baerbock and the Greens also have a lot to offer, also in detail – unlike Schulz back then, whose campaign was not really coherent.

tagesschau.de: But isn’t the Greens just crumbling their narrative of the meticulous, knowledgeable Baerbock, who stands for a fresh start in politics, for transparency?

Faas: This line of argument is, of course, damaged. But it will be really risky for the Greens if they lose their challenger status and the SPD moves up to second place. The Greens and the SPD are addressing similar camps, and the state elections recently attracted the incumbents. The Scholz values ​​are currently better than the Baerbocks. That should be observed with some concern among the Greens.

tagesschau.de: Scholz doesn’t really play a role in the election campaign at the moment …

Faas: Right, the conflict mainly takes place between Laschet and Baerbock. On the one hand, this may be dangerous for the SPD because it will simply be forgotten. But the story of the SPD and Scholz is different: Look, they do their antics, but I work here, I am the actual incumbent. So far, however, this strategy has not been really successful. All of this just goes to show that there is an awful lot of open space in this election year.

tagesschau.de: Precisely because everything is open in this election year: Is that why this election campaign is particularly rough?

Faas: I would be careful there. Peer Steinbrück and Helmut Kohl were not treated lightly either. There has always been “negative campaigning”. Nevertheless, we are experiencing a certain acceleration and escalation logic, also fueled by social media.

“Baerbock is more interesting than Laschet or Scholz”

tagesschau.de: But it is noticeable that the attacks are concentrated on Baerbock. Why are Laschet and Scholz not being scrutinized?

Faas: Baerbock is currently the more interesting person. Also because your own moral claim and the accusations against you are in stark contrast to each other. In addition, their image is not as well defined and consolidated as with the well-known people like Scholz or Laschet. So you can change a picture of a person very quickly. And the woman factor may also play a role.

tagesschau.de: Will it be about content at some point in this election campaign?

Faas: So far it has been an election campaign full of contradictions, as the current Germany trend shows. You may trust Scholz as Chancellor, but in terms of climate protection, the cross with the Greens might be better. At the Union you may know that the country is in good hands, but the FDP might also be very good in the governing coalition. It is exciting to see which criterion is decisive in the voting booth. Do you say: It depends on the Chancellor or do I decide on the content? So: I’ll vote for the Greens, although candidate Baerbock didn’t convince me, but I think climate protection is important. All of these potential contradictions that one has in mind then have to be sorted by September. And that will be very exciting.