According to the IfW Institute, Europe’s business with Asia is stalling more. Due to closed ports and terminals and long waiting times in front of the remaining handling capacities, the freight volume in the Red Sea – the most important sea trade route between China and Europe – is currently 20 percent lower than usual, the Kiel researchers said on Friday. “China’s exports are likely to decline in August, and German and European imports are likely to move sideways.” Trade with the US remains intact.
“EU-China trade is stalling,” tweeted the outgoing IfW President Gabriel Felbermayr. Falling import volumes are likely to raise the prices of imported goods. “You could clearly see that in the Christmas business.” In particular, China’s mega-ports Ningbo and Shanghai left significantly fewer ships in the past four weeks than in the four weeks before, according to the IfW. While there have recently been slight signs of relaxation, the terminal closure in Ningbo is now exacerbating the bottlenecks in container traffic again. “The maritime trade is not coming to rest,” said IfW expert Vincent Stamer.
According to the researchers, total world trade in August should be at the level of the previous month. For Germany, there are signs of an increase in exports of 1.6 percent. “The imports of Germany and Northern Europe will be spared from the recent traffic jams in the container shipping this month.” For the future, however, “a high level of uncertainty” is to be feared, Stamer warned.