If the Earth were a patient, its condition would probably be described as critical. This is how one can read the first report on planetary health, which a research team led by resilience researcher Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research presented on Monday. Numerous vital parameters have been driven into dangerous areas by human actions, and the functioning of the global ecosystem is therefore seriously endangered.
The report describes that the Earth has already left the “planetary boundaries” considered safe in six of nine defined areas. This is well known for global warming. The other areas include ocean acidification, the state of the ozone layer, species extinction and loss of ecological functions, freshwater consumption, the conversion of nature into cultivated land, aerosols in the air and chemicals and other novel substances throughout the biosphere and finally disrupted nutrient cycles on the planet.
According to the so-called Planetary Health Check, which Rockström’s team presented on Mondayonly the ozone layer and the pollution of the atmosphere with aerosols are still within the planet’s limits. Ocean acidification has not quite reached the danger zone yet, but the limit will be exceeded here too in the foreseeable future, said Levke Caesar during the presentation of the report to journalists. “Our updated diagnosis shows that vital organs of the Earth’s system are being weakened.” This leads to reduced resilience and a growing risk that tipping points will be exceeded. Taken together, the Earth is close to the high-risk zone. Humanity has therefore left the safe scope for action in most areas, and the planetary ecosystem may have suffered irreversible damage.
Where many people live, biodiversity is poor
For decades, scientists have been trying to determine the health of the Earth more precisely. The concept of planetary boundaries has recently received a lot of attention. Johan Rockström presented it with a group of like-minded people in 2009. Since then, the concept has been repeatedly criticized and revised several times. Just over a year ago, a team led by Rockström reported that the sixth planetary boundary had been exceeded by human actions: the pollution of the planet with man-made chemicals. The group emphasized at the time that the burden on the biosphere with new substances had probably been far too high for a long time, but the data to provide concrete evidence for this assumption was not available until 2023.
With the new report, Rockström’s team now wants to introduce annual health checks, instead of just providing an update on the planetary boundaries every six to eight years as before. Not, as he stresses, because a huge amount changes in a year, “fortunately”. But because humanity needs to be reminded regularly.
The new report differs little from the most recent assessment a year ago. But Rockström also justifies it by saying that it is the first attempt to show the state of the Earth’s health on world maps. The map of acidification shows, for example, that all of the world’s oceans are affected, but the Southern and Arctic Oceans are particularly affected.
The associated world map clearly shows that species extinction and the loss of ecological functions are linked to the population density in the region. Biodiversity is particularly poor where there are many people. Large parts of North and South America, almost all of Europe, India and China are well into the high-risk area. Large parts of the Amazon and Congo basins, as well as the vast boreal forests of the northern hemisphere, are therefore still in the safe area.
In addition, the annual report should provide an overview of how the pressures in the individual areas have changed. The annual report therefore makes it easier to document progress, both deterioration and improvement. The annual report is a crucial step in monitoring and ensuring the stability of the Earth.
The warming that the planet can just about tolerate is 1.5 degrees Celsius, which will certainly be exceeded. Therefore, humanity must work towards getting this “overshoot” under control by cooling the earth again, said Rockström. “We have to get back to the safe range.”