Die bevorstehenden US-Wahlen wecken in Indien großes Interesse. Beobachter diskutieren die möglichen Auswirkungen der politischen Ausrichtungen von Donald Trump und Kamala Harris auf die Beziehungen zwischen Indien und den USA. Trumps aggressive Handels- und Einwanderungspolitik könnte negativ für Indien sein, während Harris tendenziell offenere Ansätze verfolgt. Technologische Kooperationen und der Fokus auf China könnten beiden Kandidaten zugutekommen, wobei New Delhi vor allem diplomatische Verbindungen stärken möchte, unabhängig vom Wahlausgang.
As the US elections approach in just two weeks, global attention is focused on the outcome. Will Donald Trump, the 45th president, reclaim his position, or will the US see its first female president? The situation is particularly significant in New Delhi, where analysts are assessing how each candidate may influence the US-India relationship, both positively and negatively. There’s a keen interest in determining which of the two leaders could be more advantageous for India.
Economics
Navigating economic relations with the US under another Trump administration could prove challenging. Trump has previously labeled India an “abuser” of import tariffs, and he reiterated this sentiment recently, declaring, “The biggest charger of all is India.”
He remarked, “India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. I did. And especially the leader, Modi. He’s a great leader. Great man. Really is a great man. He’s brought it together. He’s done a great job. But they probably charge as much.”
If elected again, Trump plans to implement ‘reciprocal trade’ policies, a conservative stance that may not favor Indian exports to the US, India’s largest trading partner. Currently, the US is the only country in India’s top ten trading partners with which India maintains a trade surplus, making it crucial to sustain a stable economic relationship with this key source of foreign exchange.
Conversely, while Harris may also adopt some protectionist policies, she is likely to take a more measured approach. The Biden administration, for instance, recently prevented a Japanese firm, Nippon Steel, from acquiring US Steel due to national security concerns regarding a $14.9 billion deal. This illustrates that even under Harris, there won’t necessarily be leniency for the USA’s key allies, and protectionist barriers could be erected.
Technological Advancement
Both Trump and Harris are expected to adopt a confrontational stance toward China, which might benefit India. For example, the Biden administration has been proactive in maintaining the technological balance between India and China.
During PM Modi’s recent visit to the US for the Quad summit, a crucial agreement was forged to establish a semiconductor fabrication facility in India. The partnership initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) between the US and India exemplifies the strengthening ties between the two nations.
The agreement, signed in May 2022, spans diverse sectors, including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, space, 6G mobile technology, and semiconductor supply chains.
Harris is likely to continue building on Biden’s policy of enhancing India’s technological leverage against China.
Trump’s aggressive stance is also expected to benefit India, as countries look to reduce operational risks by relocating from China.
Trump has threatened to impose a staggering 60% tariff on Chinese imports, which could incite an exodus from China, potentially favoring nations in Southeast Asia as well as India.
Diplomacy
Given the Modi administration’s prior engagement with Trump and their shared conservative values, New Delhi may lean towards a Trump presidency, particularly regarding diplomacy and international relations.
Both Trump and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) uphold ideologies rooted in nationalism, patriotism, and tradition. Some prominent Indian nationalist thinkers have noted parallels between their perspectives and those of American conservatives, indicating a common ideological foundation that could foster a more agreeable diplomatic environment.
Moreover, both Modi and Trump perceive themselves as strong, decisive leaders capable of inciting substantial change. Trump’s appreciation for strong leadership resonates well with Modi’s approach, suggesting a potential for smoother cooperation between the two nations.
Amid rising tensions with Canada, a close US ally, Delhi may be inclined to support Trump.
Immigration
Immigration continues to be a significant item on Trump’s agenda. The Republican candidate has committed to reinstating his aggressive stance against illegal immigration, hinting that it might lead to a “bloody story.”
He could push to limit H1B visas, introducing new biometric requirements, longer processing times, and wage mandates, which would heavily impact Indian professionals.
In contrast, Harris is anticipated to advocate for more lenient immigration policies, offering greater protections for undocumented immigrants and refining the system for attracting and keeping global talent.
Conclusion
Regardless of the outcome of the elections on November 5, it’s essential to recognize that India-US relations enjoy robust bipartisan support in Washington, DC. This endorsement indicates that both major