Im Oktober verlangsamte sich das Wachstum der Hauspreise im Vereinigten Königreich, was auf bevorstehende Änderungen der Grundsteuer zurückzuführen ist. Nationwide berichtete, dass der Durchschnittspreis einer Immobilie um nur 0,1 % gestiegen ist, verglichen mit 0,7 % im September. Der jährliche Wachstumsraten fiel auf 2,4 %, nach einem Zweijahreshoch von 3,2 %. Gleichzeitig wird ab April 2025 eine Steuererhöhung für Käufer von Zweithäusern erwartet. In bestimmten Regionen wird die Änderung besonders starke Auswirkungen auf Erstkäufer haben.
House price growth in the UK experienced a slowdown in October, as reported by Nationwide, ahead of significant changes to stamp duty.
The building society indicated that the alterations to stamp duty described in the Budget could ‘dampen demand’.
According to Nationwide, the average property price rose by a mere 0.1% last month, a decline from the 0.7% growth recorded in September.
The annual growth rate also fell to 2.4% last month, down from a two-year peak of 3.2% in September.
The average house price in the UK for October was £265,738, a slight decrease from £266,094 in September.
This development follows the recent Autumn Statement, where Ms. Reeves announced that buyers of second homes will see an increase in the stamp duty rate by two percentage points, moving from 3% to 5%.
The Treasury also confirmed that stamp duty thresholds will be lowered in the upcoming spring.
Starting in April 2025, first-time buyers looking to purchase a property priced at £425,000 will face a stamp duty fee of £6,250.
Stamp duty represents one of the additional costs that buyers might face when acquiring a property.
Currently, first-time buyers are exempt from stamp duty on properties valued up to £425,000.
For properties above this threshold, they will only incur a 5% tax on the portion that exceeds £425,000 and is up to £625,000.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, noted, ‘Housing market activity has remained relatively stable in recent months, with mortgage approvals nearing pre-pandemic levels, despite the significantly higher interest rate environment.’
‘If the economy continues along a steady recovery path, as anticipated, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually, with affordability improving as interest rates moderate and earnings outpace house price increases.’
Nationwide attributed a stable rise in market activity and valuations this year to robust labour market conditions, characterized by low unemployment and increasing wages.
The building society indicated that the Chancellor’s choice to revert the starting point for stamp duty payments back to pre-2022 levels would influence the timing of property transactions.
Mr. Gardner stated that buyers would ‘strive to finalize their house purchases before the tax changes come into effect.’
This situation is expected to lead to a spike in transactions during the first quarter of 2025, particularly in March, followed by a potential dip in activity in the subsequent three to six months, similar to trends observed after prior stamp duty adjustments.
However, the fluctuations in activity might be less dramatic this time due to prior awareness of the impending changes.
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, remarked, ‘As the larger economy stabilizes, it’s encouraging to see improved affordability and confidence emerging within the housing market.’
‘With indications suggesting a gradual decrease in base rates over the upcoming months, there is considerable potential to end the year on an optimistic note that could extend into 2025.’
How’s the market across the UK?
Nationwide’s data for the year ending June 2024 indicates that the stamp duty revision will influence roughly one in five first-time buyers.
Nonetheless, the building society noted that the effect will significantly vary across different regions of the UK, largely due to the disparity in property prices.
Mr. Gardner explained, ‘The most substantial impacts are likely to be felt in the South East of England, where approximately 40% of first-time buyers paid between £300,000 and £425,000. This change will raise the moving costs for these buyers by an average of £2,900.’
‘Conversely, the areas least affected include Yorkshire & The Humber, the North of England, and Northern Ireland, where fewer than 10% of first-time buyers purchased homes in the £325k to £425k range.’
He added that the additional taxes imposed on affected first-time buyers in these regions will generally be lower than in London and the South East.
A stamp duty calculator has also been provided to illustrate how the Budget impacts both first-time and second-home buyers.
What trends are evident in house prices?
The housing market has shown signs of stagnation during the first half of this year, yet growth indicators appear to be emerging.
In August, Nationwide reported an average house price of £265,375.
Monthly house prices actually decreased by 0.2% in August, resulting in a loss of approximately £