Dusseldorf As in the previous month, US inflation data boosted the German stock market. According to the data, the Dax rose by more than 200 points on Tuesday afternoon. The leading index is currently at 14,565 points, an increase of 2.2 percent or the equivalent of 310 points.
US inflation came in at 7.1 percent in November, below the expected 7.3 percent. It was another decline in the annual rate, the fifth in a row. For the capital market expert Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners, “the likelihood that inflation has peaked in the USA has increased significantly”.
The November inflation is the last value that the US Federal Reserve can take into account in its interest rate decision tomorrow, Wednesday. Everything points to a rate hike of “only” 50 basis points.
It will now be exciting to see how high hopes Fed President Jerome Powell is having tomorrow for the rate hike cycle to end soon. “Many will now expect that Powell will not only announce a further slowdown in the rate of increases, but even an end to the increases by mid-2023 at the latest,” says Altmann.
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The Dax thus resolves its four-week sideways phase upwards. During this period, the index moved within the range of 14,584 points on the upside and 14,150 points on the downside. The new price targets are now 14,709 points, the high from the trading month of June, and then listings in the range between 14,800 and 15,000 points.
Against a continuation of the 2700-point rally since the end of September, the high investment quota among investors, which according to the data from the analysis company AnimusX has increased significantly in the several-week sideways phase, spoke before the data.
The cash ratio of investors has become correspondingly low, which means that there is no money for further acquisitions. Have investors bet too early on the rally continuing?
Because the private investors, in contrast to the professionals, have dissolved their hedges. The Euwax sentiment of the Stuttgart Stock Exchange jumped from an extremely negative value in the previous week (minus 16) to just minus five. The lower the index is in the red, the more investors protect themselves against falling prices. So many retail investors have sold their hedges and are likely to sell their long positions first if prices fall, which should accelerate the downside.
Crude oil prices are rising again
The Keystone pipeline in the US, which has been closed for almost a week, is fueling fears of a tightening supply on the crude oil market. Brent crude and US WTI oil rose more than 1 percent to $79.04 and $74.08 a barrel respectively. The Keystone Pipeline, which transports around 620,000 barrels of Canadian crude oil to the US every day, has been closed since a leak was reported on December 7th.
Investor sentiment on the oil market is also signaling a tense situation that could lead to a price slide or a significant increase.
Look at the individual values
Wacker chemistry: The papers benefit from an upgrade by the UBS and climbed 7.1 percent. The expert Andrew Stott based his buy recommendation for the specialty chemicals group in a sector study on the recent below-average price development of the share, among other things. In addition, Wacker could benefit from the political efforts in terms of energy transition.
SAP: Software stocks are worth watching for a good template from the US. There the cloud business had dem SAP-competitors Oracle helped to increase sales. The Walldorfer shares benefited from this only hesitantly, moving only 0.4 percent after a buy recommendation was abandoned.
Fraport: An analyst comment also moved forward Fraport into the limelight, the stocks are up 2.8 percent. The Frankfurt airport operator is in the best position to be able to cushion a high increase in costs. The traffic recovery in Frankfurt will not be as dynamic as elsewhere in Europe, but international activities should help here, according to the thesis.
Here is the page with that Dax coursehere there are current tops & flops in the Dax.