analysis
Status: 05/04/2022 12:42 p.m
Five years ago he was still a substitute candidate. Daniel Günther is now one of the most popular prime ministers in Germany. His CDU is heading for a clear election victory in Schleswig-Holstein. Why?
It looks like Daniel Günther could show it to everyone again. When the CDU politician became a replacement candidate five years ago because the top candidate who had actually been chosen suddenly resigned, some hardly took him seriously – but Günther moved into the state chancellery in Kiel. On Sunday he could get a people’s party result for the Union: The latest polls saw the party of the incumbent Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein at 38 percent – far ahead of the SPD and the Greens. That would be six percentage points more than in the 2017 state election, and thus the best result for the CDU since 2005. The CDU is currently not moving at the survey level in any other federal state.
There is no doubt that Günther’s personal popularity contributes significantly to the good values. In the federal election, the party achieved the historically worst result in the country, as before in the 2019 European elections. Günther, on the other hand, is loud ARD Germany trend nationwide the most popular prime minister and also outperforms its competitors when it comes to direct elections.
“Hello Daniel”
His name is not associated with a specific political project in the country. He didn’t implement all of the promises made during the last election campaign either. The focus of the current CDU campaign is therefore above all on Günther as a person. The CDU has rented a shop in a Kiel shopping center for the election campaign. Name: “Moin Daniel”. The slogan of the campaign: “Stay the course”.
Günther’s project was primarily his coalition: the Jamaica alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP was the first nationwide to last an entire legislative period. An earlier attempt in Saarland failed prematurely. And even in 2017 in Schleswig-Holstein that wasn’t the most obvious option. In terms of culture and content, the CDU and FDP on the one hand and the Greens on the other were very far apart, even in the north.
can treat
This has not changed in principle, but the three have found the way to a trusting cooperation. It helped that the state budget was usually well filled. And probably also Günther’s moderating style: as prime minister he was very moderate, almost presidential, balancing. The idea: Each partner should be allowed to implement what was important to them – instead of looking for the lowest common denominator.
As leader of the opposition, Günther had started debates about making pork compulsory in canteens. In the end, pragmatism reigned supreme, even if Günther made hard decisions, for example in the controversial dismissal of his interior minister. In the Corona crisis, Günther himself announced the most important measures.
“In politics it doesn’t help to yell,” he says. It’s about convincing people. “If you want to find a solution, you have to find each other.” Nevertheless, he has a clear line and shows “leadership in some areas”.
Daniel Günther and Friedrich Merz at a CDU campaign event in Neumünster.
Image: dpa
Encouragement for Merz?
It is considered unlikely that the Jamaica coalition will continue. Even if Günther formulated this as a goal. However, it looks as if two Jamaican partners would be enough for the majority: black-green should be possible, and a coalition with the FDP might also be possible. Günther does not say publicly who he prefers. In terms of content, however, the overlaps between the FDP and CDU remain greater.
Günther belongs to the more liberal wing in the Union. When Angela Merkel was still Chancellor, he was always one of the supporters of her course, he also dished out against her critics in the CSU. For a while, Günther also promoted his more moderate style and pragmatism in his federal party – certainly as an alternative to others in the Union. He wants his party to be modernized, including a quota for women. But he could not assert himself with the Conservatives. Not even with the new federal chairman Friedrich Merz. Günther did not support him in any of his three attempts to become party chairman.
In the final stretch of the election campaign, Merz also came to Schleswig-Holstein. The election on Sunday is also important for the federal chairman: it would be the first state election success in his term as party leader – and at least an encouragement for the important election in North Rhine-Westphalia a week later.