A PR disaster, security risk and costly blow: The explosions at the Russian military airport Saky in Crimea are a fiasco for Russia. But one by one.
Little is certain at this point, except: They have a sense of humour, the Ukrainians, if that can be said at all in these humorless times.
There was a bang in Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia. And huge. Videos show beachgoers fleeing after multiple explosions at Russia’s Saky military airport on Tuesday. The destruction is apparently enormous, as current satellite images show.
Did Ukraine hit the aggressor with a heavy retaliation? Russia denies this, but does not deny the explosion. Instead, the Department of Defense is citing alleged fire safety violations as if it were normal for a major military base to catch fire on a large scale.
The Ukrainians don’t want to be seen in the paper either, deny an attack – provided with the warning that one should not smoke near explosive material.
Behind the malicious punch line there is possibly a military maneuver of great importance: Ukraine could now have launched the large-scale counter-offensive that has been expected for a long time (Read more here).
Many questions, few answers – for reasons
“This Russian war against Ukraine, against all of free Europe, started with Crimea and must end with Crimea, with its liberation,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the explosion at the air force base Tuesday night. With a view to the next heating season, they want to take “maximum measures” “to end the active part of the war by the end of autumn,” said his chief of staff just a day later.
No matter what is behind the detonations at the military airport, the damage on the Russian side is obviously great.
Contrary to Moscow’s representation, satellite images show the destruction of several fighter jets. The renowned US institute Institute for the Study of War (ISW) counted at least eight burned aircraft on Thursday, Kyiv even a dozen. Russia, on the other hand, sticks to the version that a fire caused by negligence caused ammunition to explode, and not military technology.
However, an accident is considered unlikely. Experts assume a Ukrainian rocket hit. It is not yet clear from which sender. Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podoliak indicated that partisans may have been involved. the “Washington Post” reported that Ukrainian special forces carried out the attack. During a report by “New York Times” according to a senior military official who confirmed that the Ukrainian armed forces carried out the attack.
Alone: How could this blow succeed?
For years Moscow has boasted that Crimea is a “impregnable fortress” be, for example because of the strong anti-aircraft defense, but also Experts believe the Black Sea island is easier to defend than attack. In addition, the Saky military base is around 200 kilometers away from the positions of the Ukrainian army – a distance that requires appropriate guns.
The (officially) delivered ammunition for the Himars multiple rocket launchers, for example, only has a range of 80 kilometers. There is speculation as to whether the USA has now also delivered longer-range ammunition – a corresponding statement is missing a current delivery note. Observers also hold that Use of self-developed weapons of Ukraine for conceivable.
There are currently more questions than answers. And it should obviously stay that way. The President of Ukraine Selenskyj now called on all officials to maintain secrecy. In his video speech on Friday, he demanded that you refrain from commenting on the military situation so as not to endanger operations.
This suggests that Kyiv wants to maintain some ambiguity about how the alleged attack took place, probably in the hope of repeating the success.
“In any case, it makes the Russians nervous”
For Russia, the annexed Black Sea Peninsula is of great strategic importance. It serves as a transport and logistics center, and thousands of soldiers have been deployed across Crimea to reinforce positions in southern Ukraine.
Against this background, too, the alleged rocket attack on Ukraine could mark a turning point, experts believe.
Justin Bronk, analyst at the think tank Royal United Services Institute, assumes that the Russian Air Force will henceforth have “less confidence in its ability to protect armed forces within several hundred kilometers of the front line”. The result: “More troops, equipment and efforts to protect their air force bases” would have to be expended that would then be lacking elsewhere, says Bronk zum “Guardians”.
“In any case, it makes the Russians nervous,” says military expert Gustav Gressel zum ZDF. Should the Ukrainian side actually be in possession of longer-range missiles, “a whole series of air force bases, of supply depots, of railway junctions” would be vulnerable. The Russian side must now think about how to protect them. That ties capacities.
The war reaches the heads
And it would also contradict the Russian narrative, the “military operation”, as the war in Russia has to be called, go “strictly according to plan”. Already, the apparent loss of numerous fighter jets – and perhaps even pilots – is likely to represent a PR disaster for Moscow comparable to this Sinking of the missile cruiser “Moscow” or the River crossing fiasco in eastern Ukrainewhich had devastating consequences for the Russian armed forces.
However, the Kremlin could see far greater concern in the Russian Kremlin beach vacationers, who witnessed the explosions and now have the war in their minds – and after their hasty escape, of which videos testify, possibly across the country. Go already Clips of suspected victims going viral.
It is therefore hardly surprising that there has been no Russian retaliation after the alleged attack on Saky. Apparently, Moscow prefers to stick with the story that it was an accident rather than allow the Ukrainian side a significant military strike that would leave its troops vulnerable and vulnerable.
Peace talks are fading away
However, the fact that Ukraine may have launched a larger-scale counterattack means that a negotiated solution is still a long way off: both sides assume that they can gain ground.
“As someone who has conducted peace negotiations for many years, I can only say that negotiations in the current, acute phase of the war do not seem to be expedient,” says former OSCE diplomat Heidi Tagliavini “Mirror”, which mediated in conflicts with Russia for decades. The time for that has not yet come. “We are still in a phase in which one party wants to conquer a country and the other is defending itself. There is no willingness to talk,” said Tagliavini.
In fact, an end to the hostilities is not in sight. A video message to Russian travelers to Crimea could now also be taken as an indication that Ukraine is targeting targets on the peninsula.
“We advise our esteemed Russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea”, says the clip from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, “unless you want an uncomfortably hot summer holiday.” No sunscreen protects against the “dangerous effects of smoking in non-approved areas”.
No punchline.