The Institut Pasteur published this Thursday, March 10 a new report concerning the impact of the BA.2 sub-variant and the reduction of health measures on the circulation of Covid-19 in metropolitan France. We take stock.
On March 14, exit the mandatory mask, almost everywhere. You know it, Jean Castex announced on Thursday March 3 a relaxation of health measures in force in France. Should we therefore fear an epidemic rebound? According to the model published Thursday March 10 by the Institut Pasteur and taken over by the Huffington Postthere would be nothing to worry about.
Whatever the extent of the relaxation of barrier gestures, the researchers envisage a peak in contamination much lower than that of last January – the fifth wave where more than 300,000 daily cases of coronavirus could be detected on average over a week.
The Institut Pasteur puts new models online, with the release expected on Monday (end of the mask and the vaccination pass).
Even with a very strong increase in contacts from March 7, the peak of daily cases would remain well below that of the end of January.
1/8 pic.twitter.com/LfuWdo1FVl
— Nicolas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) March 10, 2022
What are the worst case assumptions?
As you can see from these graphs, in the worst case scenario (in purple), the maximum new daily cases would not exceed 170,000. These predictions show that theimmunity conferred by Omicron and vaccination makes it possible to limit the scale of the epidemic, specifies the Huffington Post. The hypothesis of the Institut Pasteur is that the changes in behavior occurred before the date of March 1, which had already been scripted.
And if there must be a sixth wave, in all the cases studied, it would weaken in April, specifies the international biomedical research center, which nevertheless tempers: “These scenarios are made on the basis of incomplete data and uncertain assumptions , warns the Institut Pasteur. The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is difficult to anticipate and the dynamics of the epidemic can change rapidly.”
We are exploring scenarios where the relaxation of measures further increases contacts from March 14 or 7. In all scenarios, the peak in cases remains much lower than the peak in January. pic.twitter.com/0aT13jgHka
— Simon Cauchemez (@SCauchemez) March 10, 2022
There is still one piece of data that is still unknown: the duration of the immunity conferred by an infection with Omicron.
For the time being, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the WHO, insisted on recalling that the Covid-19 pandemic is not over yet : “It will not be finished anywhere if it is not finished everywhere”.